I hope everyone had a very merry christmas! It was certainly a day of food and drink in my household. Last week’s selections were awful, apologies to everyone who followed my advice. There are times when the form, the handicap system and my thoughts just don’t add up. CORRIN WOOD is certainly a monkey, he was miles out of it and then stayed on better than anything to claim fourth; so much talent.
I’ve done quite a bit of studying of the numerous cards that is the feast of Boxing Day and will hopefully have found one or two. One thing for definite is I recommend getting on NATIVE RIVER today ahead of his tilt at the Welsh National tomorrow; I can’t see the 6-1 being around near the off, and with no penalty he’s effectively 8lbs well in and looked a smart horse last time. I could obviously highlight all the short price horses today like lots of other ‘tipsters’ will do. We all know that from THE NEW ONE, CUE CARD, MR MIX, DUSKY LARK etc there are some winners, but not much value. So again, I’m looking to handicaps as I like to try and solve the puzzle and get some value.
Kempton’s TV card kicks off in great style with a Novice chase. POKER SCHOOL seemed to run well through the fog last time and he has been raised 8lbs to a mark of OR125 and he could run another good race. GOLD PRESENT is certainly a topical selection and he won well at Doncaster last time so can’t be discounted. TWO TAFFS has lots of potential and an opening mark of OR138 for his chase debut indicates this. He should have given KRUZHLININ more of a race last time but the ground was against him. A return to good ground today and his potential is why he has my money on him.
The Kauto Star noises chase is another belter to watch. FRODON looked very good last time when staying on to win the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup, and the Nicholls yard is quite bullish about him, despite a quick turnaround. If he reproduces that today then he will e hard to beat. MINELLA DADDY is ultra consistent with form figures of 22112. He stayed on well last time but couldn’t beat the resurgent REGAL ENCORE. AMORE ALATO is an interesting candidate, in his novice hurdle days he beat the likes of VANITEUX and wasn’t far off IRVING. Richard Johnson has a record of 120221 when riding him and he ran well to win on good ground last time. He certainly has the potential to be a good stayer on good ground. With Johnson’s record on him, the ground, and his previous novice form I’m on at a great price.
As Ive said above the two big races of the day for me go to THE NEW ONE, who looks as as good as ever. While THISTLECRACK obviously has bags of ability and potential this is the first time he played with the big boys. CUE CARD also looked as good as ever last time and I think he will win.
So, my next selection goes in the final hurdle race. The Hobbs/Johnson horse is well regarded and they have been waxing lyrical about his chances, he won well last time at odds-on at Ffos Las and he was chucked in the champion bumper last season. SOUTHPORT has done nothing wrong so far and is a lively outsider. You can also add the likes of INSTANT KARMA and DOESYOURDOGBITE to the notebook no matter how they perform today. I’m opting for MOSCATO, he was a decent stayer on the flat for Sir Mark Prescott and he has been steadily learning his trade in his past few runs. The ground will help and he has a great chance to finally get off the mark. I’m chucking VICENZO MIO in here too, he was a decent horse and has dropped a few pounds and could catch the eye today.
The final race for the blog today is the best of the rest – The Rowland Meyrick chase. Wetherby is a stiff track and needs to be respected, I always look for course form and also form at Haydock as they are similar. YALA ENKI ticks the Haydock box after a run away success last time, he’s been raised 1olbs for that and it may stop him. The winner of the race for me is BLACKLION, he RSA chase win is by far and away the best form and he ran well behind NATIVE RIVER in the Hennessy. This easier race and his previous course win but him at the front of the market. YALA ENKI will set it up for him and I think DEFINTLY RED will run on for second.
A cracking day – enjoy everyone. Take the hint on NATIVE RIVER for tomorrow too.
£5 win BLACKLION 1.50 Wetherby 3-1 Betfred (3rd)
£2.50 ew AMORE ALATO 2:05 Kempton 10-1 William Hill (3rd – £8.75 returns)
£10 win TWO TAFFS 1:30 Kempton 5-1 William Hill (2nd)
£5 win NATIVE RIVER 2.40 Chepstow (WON 6-1 when advised = £35 returns)
Returns – £145