Kempton and Warwick


New Year’s resolutions are always hard to stick to but I’m going to try and write a blog again each week. I haven’t done a blog since Aintree last year I think but still actively bet on the nags. I know quite a few of you enjoy reading my blog and I hope I won you a few quid over the year.

There isn’t a better day than to come back today. I have a great record at Warwick and there have been some real Cheltenham pointers at this meeting. HOLYWELL can second in the Pertemps and then I tipped him at 33-1 in the Pertemps Final at the festival. I have also blogged and tipped the winner of the Pertemps Hurdle here in recent years; Uncle Jimmy (2014), Join The Clan (2015) and Flintham (2016). This meeting also brought WILLOUGHBY COURT to my attention last year who won big for me at last year’s festival. Let’s hope I can find a few winners today.

The 32RED Lanzarote Hurdle 2:40 Kempton

This is such a competitive race and in the past has thrown up some good winners such as SAPHIR DE RHEU, TEA FOR TWO and MODUS. Key trends for this race appear to be that you need a horse who is 8 or younger; has won going right handed; to be rated no more than OR145 and carrying weight no higher than 11stone. However, SAPHIR DU RHEU won carrying 11st 12lbs when he won. Applying the trends and using my form reading I have the shortlist down to: COEUR BLIMEY, DENTLEY DE MEE, DINO VELVET and MAN FROM MARS. There are also the following who only fall down on the weight trend: WILLIAM HENRY, TOP VILLE BEN, SPIRITOFTHEGAMES and TOPOFTHEGAME.  A final interesting trend is to have won last time out. This takes me down to TOP VILLE BEN, SPIRITOFTHEGAMES and MAN FROM MARS. This is run at a frenetic pace and if a horse has ran over the distance it helps. Both TOP VILLE BEN and SPIRITOFTHEGAMES have this, but we haven’t had a big priced winner of this since 2007. TVB was very impressive last time on terrible ground and caught my eye but the ground will be better today. SPIRITOFTHEGAMES has a claimer on board and when you apply her claim his weight drops below 11st and he meets that trend too and he is my selection today. MAN FROM MARS is a great each way bet at a huge price and TOPOFTHEGAME could run a big race back over hurdles.

Selection : SPIRITOFTHEGAMES 14-1 (when I wrote this with William Hill on Friday night) E/W MAN FROM MARS

Pertemps Network Hurdle 2:25 Warwick

This is one of my favourite races as I said earlier and today is a decent renewal too. There are again quite a few key trends and one is to have won over 3miles which interesting takes out the favourite BLACK IVORY, he did however finish a 3/4 length second over the distance earlier in the season, so can’t really be discounted. Looking at the trends and the form this is the shortlist for the race: BLACK IVORY (with the distance caveat); FLY CAMP; TEMPLEROSS; PRIME VENTURE; NO HASSLE HOFF and THE ORGANIST. Too big a shortlist! So I’ve taken out NO HASSLE HOFF and THE ORGANIST on their weight, although PRIME VENTURE is helped here with his claimer. The favourite BLACK IVORY is my top rated selection and as I write this I can get 5-1 with William Hill so he’s worth a wager. However, IO do like to try and find value for readers. One at a bigger price who only fails on the weight trend is FLY CAMP. He’s only 3lbs heavier and comes from strong connections and needed the run last time. Form wise he defeated MISTERTON by 4 1/2 lengths last season, that horse is now rated OR142. FLY CAMP is rated OR133 so the form of that win is strong.

Selection – FLY CAMP 14-1 WILLIAM HILL

side wager for BLACK IVORY as I got 5-1 for him.

Betfred Classic Chase 3:35 Warwick

This is another great race and threw up last year’s Grand National winner in ONE FOR ARTHUR.  It’s a really competitive affair and there are a couple of favourite old timers running. Applying the form and the trends I have the shortlist down to : CRESSWELL BREEZE; KRAKATOA KING; MISSED APPROACH; SIR MANGAN and CROSSPARK. A key stat for a winner of this race is to have won over 3 miles on a left handed track. MISSED APPROACH and CROSSPARK lose out here.  KRACKATOA KING is a bit of a monkey and his official rating of OR127 is too low to win this. So that leaves SIR MANGAN and CRESSWELL BREEZE. The latter meets every trend in recent years and SIR MANGAN hasn’t run for a while which MAY count against him. Mares are tricky to train but when you get them right they can go on amazing runs for you. The yard is flying at the moment and I think she will be the winner of this.

Selection : CRESSWELL BREEZE

HAMPTON NOVICES CHASE 1:50

Another cracking race and I’m opting for my old favourite FLINTHAM. He has course winning form here, winning the Pertemps the other year. His front running style suits the track and Nico De Boinville gets on well with him. Warwick is a jumping test and he is normally spot on and will appreciate the testing ground. DUEL AT DAWN beat him last time but Im not sure his jumping with stack up down the back straight here. BIG RIVER may be my selections biggest danger.

Selection : FLINTHAM

 

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