Scorchio Saturday Tips

What a scorching day it is again today and blue skies dominate the scene here in sunny Sheffield. Terribly sad news this week came from the sport we love and lets hope Brian Toomey pulls through and makes a full recovery. Puts it into perspective what jockeys go through to bring us this sport we love. Thoughts with his family and friends.
 
On to today's races. One of the most competitive Eclipses for a while with not much seperating most of the field on ratings. Here are my selections today plus my Bandit's treble as normal.
 
CAPO ROSSO 1640 HAYDOCK (nap) – (unplaced) this horse won impressively at Warwick on quicker ground in early May and then ran well in defeat here at Haydock after that. The Brittania was too far and too competitive and this return to 7f on quick ground will play to his strengths from the front. He's dropped a pound from that and is only a pound higher than when being beat here by SO BELOVED.
 
KINGSGATE NATIVE 1405 SANDOWN (nb) – (2nd – 17-2) ran his no show race last time at the Royal meeting and this drop in grade and quicker ground will help him. He was running in great form prior to Ascot and a reproduction of that will see him take this. The quicker the ground the better for him!
 
THE FUGUE 1550 SANDOWN (treble) – (unplaced) I thought she ran a decent race at Ascot and it will have brought her on leaps and bounds. The girls don't have a great record in this but I think she will take this. She will love the ground and will be a lot closer come the furlong pole and she can storm past them.
 
WOODLAND ARIA 1515 SANDOWN – (unplaced) she was impressive first time out and looks a filly to watch. The mile is her optimum trip and I fancy her beat NARGYS here, my only worry is the ground may be too quick for her.
 
As well as these four I'm going with the following four in an each way Lucky 15.
 
BANOFFEE 1455 HAYDOCK – (unplaced) won very well at Chester and then was supplemented for the Oaks where the track and more importantly the ground beat her. On a faster surface here she should show her true form.
 
ES QUE LOVE 1440 SANDOWN – (2nd – 16-1) here I go again with my cliff horse! However, he has run really well of late and this mile wihich will be run quickly should suit and 25-1 on his Royal Ascot form is huge in my opinion.
 
HANOVERIAN BARON 1530 HAYDOCK – (unplaced) another horse who was in top form before Ascot and he never got close there. Prior to that his run at York when just pipped by SIR JOHN HAWKWOOD is decent form. The ground should suit and he now has an extra five pounds in hand with OPINION and that doesn't take into account his riders claim. Could run a huge race at a big price.
 
TWEETIE PIE 1505 BEVERLEY – (WON – 50-1) wasn't that impressive on debut but I follow Declan Carroll alot and he can get a horse flying on these courses in Yorkshire and this one with a run under its belt should improve, again a massive price in my opinion.
 
If you're having a flutter today, good luck and remember to bet within your means. Enjoy the sun and the racing.
 
BLOG STATS :

Naps 41/189 = 21.7%
Wins 168/949 = 17.7%
Placed 251/949 = 26.4%

Win and Placed = 44.1%

@Tweet_Naps overall record. Click the link. All Time Profit/Loss currently +£61.33

Royal Ascot Day 2

Photo : Mark Cranham
 
What a first day of the meeting that was. I got ANIMAL KINGDOM way wrong, but it just affirmed the believe about transferring dirt form to grass – not many can do it. TORONADO ran a cracker for me and despite his defeat I was pleased DAWN APPROACH won to end his Epsom nightmare. I also thought MYSTERIOUS MAN ran a cracker and he is one to watch out for next time. Hero of the day has to be JONNY MURTAGH who proved again what a brilliant jockey he is in sprint races. On to Wednesday, and hopefully a winner!
 
JERSEY STAKES

GALE FORCE TEN has the Irish Guineas form in his favour here and ran a decent race in the Norfolk last year, however I don't fancy him here. GARSWOOD was a horse hyped up for the 2000 Guineas and he got nowhere near and again I think this level is too much for him. BLAINE is interesting, he won the Gimcrack last year but has then disappointed in the Middle Park and in France. On better ground though he could run a big race at 50-1 when I type this. My money is on MUTIN, he is four from four, including on a good surface. He has won at listed level, looked like he could run at this level well and the drop back shouldn't hinder him.
 
Selections – MUTIN (unplaced) & BLAINE e/w (unplaced)

DUKE OF CAMBRIDGE STAKES

This race revolves around three horses for me. DUNTLE has some excellent form and has shown it over course and distance and she could be very smart. CHIGUN was impressive when winning the Abu Dabi stakes at the Curragh. However, my preference is for DANK who is a highly progressive and talented filly. She defeated CHIGUN on her last run and was giving her 3lbs. Today they are off level weights and the ground will suit too. One of my best bets of the meeting.
 
Selections – DANK (nap) (3rd – 7-2)

PRINCE OF WALES'S STAKES

Alot has been said about CAMELOT and that his Classic crop weren't the best and that he defeated nothing. For me he stills needs credit on what he did achieve, and almost achieved. On reflection now was ENCKE drugged up by Zarooni? Anyway, he has a great chance and after a run I think he will reverse placings with AL KAZEEM. This horse has got better and better and his trainer rates him highly and rightly so, but I just think he is a level below top class. My money is on THE FUGUE in this race, if she is fully tuned up with conditions to suit, last year's Nassau winner could swoop late and take this.
 
Selection – THE FUGUE (nb) (3rd – 11-2)

ROYAL HUNT CUP

If I pick the winner of this, or if anyone does, you know you're drawing a tidy sum. Andrew Balding has been bigging up STIRRING BALLAD leading up to this, she has done well but I don't think she'll take this. Behind her at Kempton when LILY'S ANGEL won was BURKE'S ROCK, she could also run a big race from a high draw. GLOBAL VILLAGE will run his race again from the other side and is consistent here and could nab a place. I can't have PRINCE OF JOHANNE on current form, despite an improvement last time,but he loves these big fields. ES QUE LOVE is a horse who I firmly believe will take a big handicap like this over a mile. He did so first time out at Kempton this year and is now 3lbs lower than that success. He has a high draw and ran well in defeat on Saturday at Musselburgh with the same jockey on board, interestingly, he's on the same mark as that today!
 
Selection – ES QUE LOVE e/w (unplaced)

QUEEN MARY STAKES

BELDALE MEMORY will be favourite or near to it on the back of her success in the Marygate Stakes at York, however, she could be softer ground dependant and that is worth taking her on for. Hannon's trio will be popular and they haven't struck yet. My preference here is for QUATOUR, she was incredibly impressive when bounding away to take the Lily Agnes Stakes at Chester. In my opinion the ground beat her at York. The yard took this last year with CEILING KITTY and this horse has took the same route and I just think the ground in a fast run race with play into her strengths and 25-1 as I write this is huge!
 
Selection – QUATOUR (treble) (unplaced)

SANDRINGHAM HANDICAP

NARGYS is an interesting runner, only an abysmal run in the Nell Gwyn stopped her running in the Guineas when touted up as a class horse by Keiren Fallon, she's not worth giving up on, but this is too much for her. WOODLAND ARIA was impressive first time out and then the trip seemed too much after that run. Returned to 7f last time she won well, and I think that is her trip, not this! My selection for the race is ANNIE'S FORTUNE, she ran well behind WATERWAY RUN in the Oh So Sharp stakes and is a full 6lbs less in the ratings today, that is a very appealing mark for me for a horse that could well be a shade better than this level.
 
Selection – ANNIE'S FORTUNE e/w (unplaced)

Whatever happens on Day 2, lets hope it is as good as Day 1. Sit back and enjoy, bet within your means and good luck.


BLOG STATS :

Naps 39/179 = 21.8%
Wins 161/907 = 17.8%
Placed 241/907 = 26.6%

Win and Placed = 44.3%

@Tweet_Naps overall record. Click the link. All Time Profit/Loss currently +£60.33

Saturday selections

This time last year I backed the enigmatic TIDAL BAY when he won the Bet365 Gold Cup and he has gone from strength to strength since then and I still reckon he would have had a decent chance in the Gold Cup too. I hope I have found another winner of this curtain raiser again today. Next week see's the first Classic's of the season and lets hope we have more positive news to report on rather than the Al Zarooni affair. The week after I'm back at Warwick races for their evening meeting which I cant wait for!
 
On to today here are my best three plus a few others that I'm putting my well earned crust on. All the best of you're having a flutter today!
 
BALTHAZAR KING 1550 SANDOWN (nap) – (PU) travelled pretty well in the National and if that hasn't taken too much out of him he has a great chance here. Horses that have run in the National have a decent record in this and so does Phillip Hobbs. The drying ground will be in his favour and he is a cracking each way bet. A steady run from the front will see him thereabouts.
 
WISHFUL THINKING 1440 SANDOWN (nb) – (3rd – 5-1) ran well in the Champion Chase behind the Aeroplane and despite a pretty poor course record he has displayed better performances this year. SANCTUAIRE won this so impressively last year but he is not the same horse this year and all the messing around with tactics on how to try and defeat Sprinter Sacre may have had a detrimental effect.
 
AL KAZEEM 1515 SANDOWN (treble) – (WON 9-4) won well first time out last year when I backed him, injury prevented any more runs, however, if he has fully recovered the form alone of that race should see him take this. He also has form over this distance too, big chance!
 
GRANDAD'S HORSE 1405 SANDOWN – (unplaced) this horse is cracking value in my opinion. He was a good novice and ran in some good races with 5 wins too. A lengthy absence needed to be overcome last time and he needed that run. He has better ground today and has a great chance.
 
INVINCIBLE HERO 1420 RIPON – (unplaced) ran well last year in four starts after a successful year prior to that. His comeback run at Doncaster was decent and that should have him spot on for this and is getting bags of weight from the others.
 
DAZINSKI 1455 RIPON – (unplaced) is back on his last winnnig mark today after a few disappointing runs last year. I followed him in all of those too, he has the abiltiy to take this and the ground will help, hopeful of a big run today!
 
UNMOOTHAJ 1705 LEICESTER – (WON – 6-5) his fourth in a pretty decent maiden last year is by way the best form here. He was a bit green that day in the final stages and lost third at the post. With more experience under the belt a reproduction of the run should take this comfortably.
 
ES QUE LOVE 1930 HAYDOCK – (unplaced) after tipping him up on here about a step up to a mile his performance in the Spring Cup was a little disappointing. A drop back to seven on this quicker track will help him today and he's,top weight for a reason.
 
BLOG STATS :

Naps 37/168 = 22%
Wins 155/834 = 18.6%
Placed 224/834 = 27%

Win and Placed = 45.4%

@Tweet_Naps overall record. Click the link. All Time Profit/Loss currently +£57.83