I'm sat writing my blog in a different location today. We're in a fantastic country house in Witton-le-Wear in County Durham. My dad is 65 today so there are 14 of us in this house for the weekend. Beautiful house and beautiful location. Fly fishing in the River Wear just half a mile away, a nature reserve at the back of the garden and a pub across the road, heaven!
Lets hope the blog chucks up a few winners today, if you can find the winner of both the Silver and Gold cups today at Ayr not only will you take a big paycheck home but you can be classed 'King of the Punters'! Betfred are offering 5 places on those races so you have to have a dabble.
DUKE OF FIRENZE 1550 AYR (nap) – has won over 5 and 6f and will like the ground. He's been a little disappointing of late for the Cowell yard, however this horse is class and Cowell really can get them going. He won the Epsom dash last year of 2lbs higher than this and his third to Ajjaad last time showed the possibilities of a return to form. A big price and he could run a big race.
LEXINGTON ABBEY 1440 AYR (nb) – this horse has been super consistent this year and his last two runs have caught the eye behind improving types. This is the type of race that will suit off a feather weight, add the fact he is potentially well drawn and has a certain Pat Smullen on board he has to have a great chance.
ROSEBURG 1455 NEWBURY (treble) – his last run was disappointing based on his previous exploits this season, but the ground for me was the cause. The softer conditions today should ensure the return to the form he showed prior to that run. He must run well today but Air Pilot could be much better than his mark.
PASTORAL GIRL 1405 AYR – she has been running in some good races this year and her run at Ascot behind Osaila was really good amd a reproduction of that would surely make her trouble the judge. This track will suit her style more too as I think the undulations of Salisbury didnt help either.
Here are my dad's selections :
AIR PILOT 1455 NEWBURY
JUSTICE DAY 1530 NEWBURY
GO FAR 1550 AYR
OSTEOPATHIC REMEDY 1625 AYR
Before we start today a little something to whet your appetite for the future
THE COUNTDOWN IS ON…………….. (Watch this blog for more)
So, on to today. What a feast of action we have today. I love nothing better than trying to solve the puzzle of a big field in a competitive handicap! Today we have two of them! Yep, it's Ayr Gold Cup day and the Bandit is more than excited! Hopefully I've found a couple below to give me a run for my money. All the best if you're having a flutter today. If you can pick the Silver and Gold Cup double you are a serious racing person, or damn lucky : )
MASS RALLY 1550 AYR (nap) – (unplaced) this old dog finally got his nose infront last year in the Silver Cup. He has gone up 10lbs since then but he has been running really well and up to that mark. Defeating NOCTURN at York in May on good to soft got the ball rolling and then he finished a head second to JACK DEXTER in the CHIPCHASE STAKES (Group 3) on good to soft at Newcastle off level weights. My selection has a 5lb pull with JACK DEXTER today and that for me is the clincher. You need a group horse to win a race like this and I don't think he's far off that. He is also drawn 21 with all his key rivals around him. Paul Mulrennan knows his quircks and how to deliver him with that late, last minute surge! He'll still need a bit of luck though! I also like the chances of GABRIELS LAD, who is ace on soft. SPINATRIX is too big a price and HASOPOP has a sniff judged on his Ascot win from earlier in the year.
FIRST MOHICAN 1405 AYR (nb) – (unplaced) made an impressive start to the season at York. Despite a couple of decebt runs over the pond in France he has yet to score again. Soft ground is key to this oneand he seems to be a different animal on it.
GANDALAK 1440 AYR (treble) – (unplaced) what a race this is too! My horse made all when taking two races earlier in the year at Newcastle and Musselburgh. He has since struggled but has winning form on heavy ground so should love the ground. If he bolts out they may not catch him. David Bergin andt he trainer teamed up for me with a similar kind of ride on MONT RAS at York and I reckon they can do it again here! THUNDERBALL is a big danger and I have an inckling that CHOOSEDAY could run a big race with an eye catching jockey booking.
AZAGAL 1515 AYR – (unplaced) won two races earlier in the year including beating my 50-1 wonder horse TWEETY PIE at Thirsk. She then ran well in behind J WONDER and MIDNITE ANGEL at Newmarket, and that race was hot! She was then pitched in against LUCKY KRISTALE in the Lowther and ran creditably. She caught my eye again last week when getting pipped by MORNING POST at Doncaster. She can take this today for connections who won this two years ago with ROGER SEZ.
KINGSGATE NATIVE 1530 NEWBURY – (3rd – 12-1) I have to have him today despite his top weight and slower ground. However, he's like a Porsche being put in a race against some VW Golf's. He will win this today, but that is my heart talking over my head ; )
Good luck if you're having a flutter and enjoy!
BLOG STATS :
Naps 43/207 = 21%
Wins 174/1041 = 16.7%
Placed 273/1041 = 26.2%
Win and Placed = 43%
@Tweet_Naps overall record. Click the link. All Time Profit/Loss currently +£61.83
I really do enjoy big handicap races, as a betting spectacle they are so tough and the bookies must make a fortune. Yet trying to pick a winner in a 27 runner field is one hell of a job but I love the challenge. Lets hope the ones I've picked come in today! I have to stick with the old boy BORDERLESCOTT today who won well for me the other week in the Beverley Bullet. He's a class horse and looked like he had a bit more in hand that day, you have to follow a sprinter in form! The jump season isn't far away now and can't wait for it to start! There is still some class flat races to go yet though. Enjoy the racing today and I hope I get you a few winners.
1.45 ROKER PARK (nap) (4th)
2.20 ADVANCED (8th)
2.50 CITY GIRL (4th)
3.30 BORDERLESCOTT (nb)
4.05 TOP NOTCH TONTO (WON 11-1)
4.40 OPERA GAL (WON 8-13)
5.15 ROGER SEZ (Last)
5.45 STOCK HILL FAIR (6th)
1.30 PIVOTAL MOVEMENT (6th)
2.05 COQUET (3rd)
2.35 HEAVY METAL (IWAC) (5th)
3.10 EXPENSE CLAIM (9th)
3.45 DESERT LAW (6th)
4.20 BRIGHT STRIKE (2nd)
4.55 DOMINATE (5th)
5.30 DARE TO DREAM (3rd)