Derby Day today! What a cracking day of racing this is and I just hope the thunderstorms don’t spoil the going or the spectacle. I came very close last week to a big win on the blog with CLEVER COOKIE deadheading at 3-1 and then I had three seconds all beaten by hardly anything! BODY AND SOUL (17-2), SIRIUS PROSPECT (3-1) and ROYAL RASCAL (3-1).
Lets hope today brings a few winners and then its full steam ahead for Royal Ascot! I fancy quite a few horses across the meetings today but have picked 4 who I think have the best chance and the best odds for me! If you’re having a flutter good luck!
HYMENAIOS 1335 EPSOM (NAP) – (3rd – 5-1 = £3.12) this horse defeated CAPE CASTER at Doncaster in March and it won nice and convincingly and went into my notebook. CAPE CASTER has since won and franked the form. More importantly that day my selection had ROMSDAL comfortably beaten, and he’s supplemented for the derby today! Ignore the last run as the ground wasn’t ideal and I expect a much more positive showing today!
LATIN CHARM 1530 MUSSELBURGH (NB) – (unplaced = -£5.00) has travelled a fair distance to compete in this and he has pretty decent form in the book. Two runs this year have resulted in places with one or two of the others proving too good. Today is his day! One of his conquerors BLACK SCHNAPPS ran well the other week behind WRANGLER at Haydock and that form could prove decisive here. He’s 3 lb higher than that run but I really think he will win this today!
CASPIAN PRINCE 1515 EPSOM (TREBLE) – (WON 9-1 = £28.12) won here over this distance in in April on good to soft and has a good chance of repeating that from a decent draw. He’s albs higher now but for me the key is that Adam Kirby, who won on him in April, is up again, despite SEEKING MAGIC, who has a great chance too, running from the Cox yard. He must fancy this ones chances more and so do I. Cracking race though!
AZAGAL 1645 DONCASTER – (unplaced = -£5.00) I had this filly the other week when she won here in May. She is up 7lbs from that and was entered in a class 1 listed last time. She is not good enough at that level and returns to a more realistic grade today. The ground will be perfect for her and its forecast to have even more rain a tDoncaster which would help her. She could run a big race again at a ridiculous price. The top two in the market keep her price high and I think she will take this today. Kerching!!!!!
I haven’t included the big race in the blog but my selection is the following :
EBANORAN – (unplaced) people are questioning the form off the Derrinstown Trial but for me it always holds up. That day he hung badly right and was disqualified after the post. The camber of the track at Epsom will straighten him up and the extra two furlongs for me will bring out even more improvement . John Oxx is the other factor, he has sent there over for the Derby and two of those, SINNDAR and SEA THE STARS obliged. He obviously thinks this one is good enough and I’d love to see the Aga Khan’s colours win this again.
My Dad’s selections today are – (and he has some catching up to do!)
BLACK SHADOW 1335 EPSOM (2nd – £4.37)
ETON RIFLES 1515 EPSOM (NR)
KINGSTON HILL 1600 EPSOM (2nd – £4.68)
NOTARISED 1530 MUSSELBURGH (unplaced = -£5.00)
Current standings :
FATHER 7-12 SON
Profit – FATHER +£53.31
from £2.50 each way stakes on all selections.
After the first Classics passed us by we had the thrills and spills of Chester and now we look forward to the proper Derby trial – The Dante – at York next week. I've not seen anything so far that jumps out as the Derby winner, but we may see something today at Lingfield and next week at York. I'm looking forward to next Saturday as I'm off to the meeting at Doncaster with my family. Hopefully the weather will improve. The handicaps on offer today are ace and I've picked a few big priced ones as always! Hopefully I'll be lucky! Good luck yourselves whatever you're on!
DREAM SPIRIT 1545 ASCOT (nap) (Unplaced = -£5.00)
Make no mistakes this fella has class and decent form and despite being a little inexperienced I think he holds the key to this puzzle. He started well last year beating MAVERICK WAVE at Newmarket. That's decent form based on that horse's success beating CANNOCK CHASE at Chester this week. He was then the beaten favourite twice, firstly behind DARK EMERALD, who has performed admirably at Meydan, and secondly behind MOOHAARIB who went out and won a Listed race here beating other horses with smart form lines. My selection has a good draw, will enjoy the ground and could be a much smarter horse than his mark suggests.
ROYAL GUARDSMAN 1525 HAYDOCK (nb) (Unplaced = -£5.00)
This fella is a monster price! For me he has been running well and caught my eye when winning well at Newbury, beating KIAMA BAY. He never really got into his next race behind GASSIN GOLF but he has all the credentials to step up here! He has a very light weight and Sam Twiston on his back too – this will help up the stiff Haydock finish and I think he has a cracking chance.
AZAGAL 1510 ASCOT (treble) (Unplaced – = -£5.00)
She won well last time over this distance and has only been raised 2lbs. That takes her back to another winning mark of OR89. She won this time last year off that at Doncaster and she has the scope to step up and go again!
MON BRAV 1655 ASCOT (Unplaced = -£5.00)
Won a class 3 on good to firm off a mark of OR78, he's three pounds less in this and I'm really interested in Hughsey taking the ride. He's ridden a couple of winners for the yard recently. This horse can be a monkey but can turn it on when the ground is decent and around the mark he's on today.
My Dad's selections are :
OASIS FANTASY 1400 ASCOT (3rd – 11-2 = £3.43)
STORM ROCK 1415 HAYDOCK (3rd – 9-4 = £1.40)
SOLAR MAGIC 1510 ASCOT (2nd – 7-2 = £2.18)
WAR SOUND 1525 HAYDOCK (WON 6-1 = £18.75)
FATHER 1-1 SON
Before we start today a little something to whet your appetite for the future
THE COUNTDOWN IS ON…………….. (Watch this blog for more)
So, on to today. What a feast of action we have today. I love nothing better than trying to solve the puzzle of a big field in a competitive handicap! Today we have two of them! Yep, it's Ayr Gold Cup day and the Bandit is more than excited! Hopefully I've found a couple below to give me a run for my money. All the best if you're having a flutter today. If you can pick the Silver and Gold Cup double you are a serious racing person, or damn lucky : )
MASS RALLY 1550 AYR (nap) – (unplaced) this old dog finally got his nose infront last year in the Silver Cup. He has gone up 10lbs since then but he has been running really well and up to that mark. Defeating NOCTURN at York in May on good to soft got the ball rolling and then he finished a head second to JACK DEXTER in the CHIPCHASE STAKES (Group 3) on good to soft at Newcastle off level weights. My selection has a 5lb pull with JACK DEXTER today and that for me is the clincher. You need a group horse to win a race like this and I don't think he's far off that. He is also drawn 21 with all his key rivals around him. Paul Mulrennan knows his quircks and how to deliver him with that late, last minute surge! He'll still need a bit of luck though! I also like the chances of GABRIELS LAD, who is ace on soft. SPINATRIX is too big a price and HASOPOP has a sniff judged on his Ascot win from earlier in the year.
FIRST MOHICAN 1405 AYR (nb) – (unplaced) made an impressive start to the season at York. Despite a couple of decebt runs over the pond in France he has yet to score again. Soft ground is key to this oneand he seems to be a different animal on it.
GANDALAK 1440 AYR (treble) – (unplaced) what a race this is too! My horse made all when taking two races earlier in the year at Newcastle and Musselburgh. He has since struggled but has winning form on heavy ground so should love the ground. If he bolts out they may not catch him. David Bergin andt he trainer teamed up for me with a similar kind of ride on MONT RAS at York and I reckon they can do it again here! THUNDERBALL is a big danger and I have an inckling that CHOOSEDAY could run a big race with an eye catching jockey booking.
AZAGAL 1515 AYR – (unplaced) won two races earlier in the year including beating my 50-1 wonder horse TWEETY PIE at Thirsk. She then ran well in behind J WONDER and MIDNITE ANGEL at Newmarket, and that race was hot! She was then pitched in against LUCKY KRISTALE in the Lowther and ran creditably. She caught my eye again last week when getting pipped by MORNING POST at Doncaster. She can take this today for connections who won this two years ago with ROGER SEZ.
KINGSGATE NATIVE 1530 NEWBURY – (3rd – 12-1) I have to have him today despite his top weight and slower ground. However, he's like a Porsche being put in a race against some VW Golf's. He will win this today, but that is my heart talking over my head ; )
Good luck if you're having a flutter and enjoy!
BLOG STATS :
Naps 43/207 = 21%
Wins 174/1041 = 16.7%
Placed 273/1041 = 26.2%
Win and Placed = 43%
@Tweet_Naps overall record. Click the link. All Time Profit/Loss currently +£61.83