Saturday Chances or Chancers?

 
The Cheltenham count down is well and truely on. Today gives us another chance to see a few potential contenders and we also have a Grand National Trial. Yesterday my nap EDMUND KEAN was very impressive and surely one to watch for the festival, the runner-up SEEDSMAN is also one to watch. I fancy a couple of David Pipe's today and I'm hoping the old boy above GILES CROSS can repeat last year's success.
 
Here are todays tips. I've done three Lucky 15's.
 
Lucky 15 Number 1
 
THE COCKNEY MACKEM 1515 ASCOT – (5th – 25-1) ran very well at the end of last season in some competitive chases. A superb second at the festival in the Byrne Plate behind Salut Flo shows this one has the ability. He has gone well fresh before and shouldn't be discounted back over hurdles. I've just got 25-1 on BetFred for this one which is a crazy price. Great each way chance!
 
CUE CARD 1550 ASCOT (nb) – (WON 15-8) this horse has bags of class and despite him stepping up in trip he still has enough ability at this distance to take this. He will never beat SPRINTER SACRE so connections' plan to change distance for me is sensible. Favourites have a cracking record in this race and the drop back in trip will suit and I think he will win comfortably.
 
MIAS BOY 1600 LINGFIELD – (4th – 7-1) I just can't leave this old favourite of mine and would back it to the death. He just got pipped last week at this course. He is back at a mile so will need a strong pace. I think that is what has resulted in places in the last two races is that he didn't get going soon enough. However, this is a step up in class. Must have a strong each way claim though.
 
SAOI 1635 LINGFIELD – (2nd – 3-1) bidding for a hat-trick and I was furious with myself for missing the first of those victories as I had backed it twice beforehand. He should appreciate the step up in trip and the form of his last two victories is strong and been franked by the runner up running to a place twice more.
 
Lucky 15 Number 2

VALCO DE TOUZAINE 1345 HAYDOCK – (3rd – 11-4) ran well in France and has two decent starts to his British career including a good second on his reappearance. He then ran creditably behind LORDOFTHEHOUSE next time out. Those runs should put him in with a smart chance today.
 
KENTFORD GREY LADY 1420 HAYDOCK (treble) – (4th – 2-1) she is a smart stayer and ran very well in third behind REVE DE SIVOLA in the Cleeve Hurdle last time. On that form she should take this today.
 
GILES CROSS 1455 HAYDOCK – (PU) he ran a cracker in the Welsh National and just emptied totally in the final few furlongs. At that point the stable had just come from being closed down so it was a damn good show. He won is last year ahead of NEPTUNE COLLONGES and we know what he went on to do. He loves the ground and the track and now that the stable are back with the winners again, he has a great chance to reclaim his crown. I have ran out of words for describing DENIS O'REGAN as a superb jockey and he will get the best out of him again.
 
SIXTY SOMETHING 1640 HAYDOCK (nap) – (unplaced) is a progressive horse as he showed when winning at Aintree and Bangor this season. He ran a bit under par last time at Doncaster behind STORM SURVIVOR but he still ran on well late in that race. O'REGAN's relaxed style will suit him and he should be crept into the race, fancy him big time to bounce back today.
 
Lucky 15 Number 3

AMIGO 1430 WINCANTON – (3rd – 13-8) won over 3 miles last time at Chpestow in a dogged style and he has been raised 3lbs for that success. With heavy ground again on the cards he should be thereabouts at the finish up the long Wincanton finish.
 
DIAMONDS RETURN 1615 WINCANTON – (PU) won three on the bounce at the end of last season including over course and distance and ran well last time out. Returns today and could continue that progressive trend, hopeful of a big run.
 
REAL MILAN 1405 ASCOT – (PU) whilst ROCKY CREEK is a worthy favourite after his impressive win at Warwick last time my selection has done nothing wrong so far in two novice chases and will revel in the mud. This is a big step up but he looks a smart one.
 
ASHKAZAR 1440 ASCOT – (LAST!!!!!) this old dog infuriates me! He can be absolutely class and was that at Cheltenham last season. He has so much ability but it depends how he feels. He'll either run well and give them something to think about or he won't be bothered and will be pulled up. I'm hoping for the first one at a pretty decent price.
 
 
So, quite a few selections today and I'm more than hopeful of my top three. I just have to say that THE COCKNEY MACKEM has such a good chance in my opinion today and I have put a little extra on him each way!
 
If you are having a bet, please do so within your means. If you like what you have read please give the blog a retweet or a follow. I do really appreciate people reading the blog as it takes a while to do.
 
Best of luck everyone and enjoy the racing!
 
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Wolverhampton treble

 
Yesterday was a bit disappointing to be honest. I really fancied my best three and only SWYNMOR was the one who performed best, and we know what happened to him! Glad to hear that GILES CROSS was ok and just tired, thought he was injured at first. Obviously the impact of the illness at Victor Dartnall's yard took it's toll on him. My other really big disappointment was LANDSCAPE who on paper was very well handicapped. It was a class performance from GEVREY CHAMBERTAIN but LANDSCAPE ran no sort of race and as a fellow twitter follower pointed out to me, his victory at Taunton the week before was on desperate ground and it must have took it's toll. Lots of excuses here though, in the end they were just poor on the day.
 
Here are today's best three :
 
DANCING WELCOME 1620 WOLVES (nap) – (unplaced) conditions today are perfect and he won twice this time last year here at Wolves. The handicapper has been in control of him of late, but I reckon if he gets out quickly of stall 2 he may be in a position to win.
 
FORTINBRASS 1550 WOLVES (nb) – (unplaced) ran well last time on a return from a lay off and is on the same mark which could prove to be a well handicapped one. Hopefully today he will run one better!
 
BERLUSCA 1445 WOLVES (treble) – (WON 8-13) ran very well on Friday and has a penalty to overcome for that, but his performance last time suggests he should overcome that.
 

Welsh National Tip

Well not too bad a day on the blog yesterday with DRAWNFROMTHEPAST (11-8) and BALLYGARVEY (9-4) winning for us. Was a shame that the nap DOOR BOY ran so poorly again, think that will be the last of my money he gets for a while. Anyway, on to today with the re-arranged Welsh National to look forward to plus some good supporting cards at Sandown and Wincanton. My tip for big one is above – I'mvsure you can guess who he is before you read below.
 
Here are my best three bets for today, plus a few others to watch out for.
 
LANDSCAPE 1405 WINCANTON (nap) – (unplaced) ran well last week when winning at Taunton and isn't penalised from that race. Harry Derham can also claim 5lbs today rather than 3 last week, so he's 2lb better off! The handicapper will surely hit him after this so it will be wise to get on him today. He's well handicapped on ground he'll like and over the right distance. He must have a huge chance.
 
SWNYMOR 1335 CHEPSTOW (nb) – (FELL) was a decent prospect on the flat and was impressive when winning first time out at Newbury. He really didn't have to beat much but the manner in which he did it was appealing. He should be thereabouts in this. The Nicholls runner is the unknown quantity!!
 
GILES CROSS 1520 CHEPSTOW (treble) e/w – (PU) what a great horse this is. It loves the mud and really battles well. He's been runner up in this twice already. The trip, ground and course will all suit. He has a weight to burden that only a select few have won with, but this boy is brave and will keep battling up the hill. Denis O'Regan gets on well with him and won well on him at Haydock last season. He's a great jockey and will keep him at the front going steady. I really think he can defy this weight and I think is a banker for a place at the least!
 
I also fancy the chances of HEY BIG SPENDER 1540 SANDOWN (unplaced) today. His run at Ascot wasn't great but he will have needed that and I think he can win this today off a mark he has won off before. I am also going for a Paul Nicholls treble with the following three :
 
KEPPOLS HILL 1300 CHEPSTOW – (WON 10-11) has been unlucky on both occasions previous and really should have won them both but for jumping errors. Today is the day!
ROGER BEANTOWN 1445 CHEPSTOW – (FELL) ran poorly at Cheltenham last time but his previous run here gives him a sniff and an extended distance should play to his strengths. Takes this before tackling fences.
GRANDIOSO 1330 WINCANTON – (2nd – 11-4) won well over course and distance last time and I think he will do the same again getting a run in off Tony Star.
 
Finally I'm having a flutter on WILLIAMS WISHES, (WON evens) POET (unplaced) AND SOFTSONG (unplaced) at SANDOWN all who I think have got great chances again today to take the money.
 
Well I hope there are a few winners in this lot today or I will be very disappointed, particiularly the best three. Remember these are my selections and I'm by no means an expert! If you are having a flutter, remember to do so within your means. Enjoy the racing and scream out loud for GILES CROSS!!