Warwick and Kempton

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Last Saturday saw a bog of welcome profit for the blog with the win double of LIFEBOAT MONA and GARDE LA VICTOIRE going in. Let’s hope there is more to come today and I’m hopeful of a big run in a race where I have a cracking record over recent years.

The Lanzarote Hurdle is the feature race of the day at Kempton. What a shocker that was this week with the news of this course’s potential closure. While the investment and ideas of the Jockey Club sound reasonable you can’t close a track with the history Kempton has. Let’s hope the council and arguments from the racing paternity stop it, if it goes through we may see similar issues with NH venues. So, to the race itself. I do think OLD GUARD has another big race in him, possibly at the festival, but not today off this weight! DOESYOURDOGBITE won nicely last time, despite running in snatches but this is his biggest test to date. BENNYS KING doesn’t know how to run a bad race and should be thereabouts but the one who catches my eye is one who meets a lot of then trends for this race. CHESTERFIELD ran a cracker behind BRAIN POWER last time after a long absence, showing me some of his old class and potential remain. He was developing into a decent looking hurdler for John Ferguson before the lay off and indeed he was going well here when falling at the last in his penultimate run. He’s been well supported all morning and the current 8-1 from BETY365 is worth snapping up.

In the 32RED.com chase SANDY BEACH steps up in trip to 3m. He looked very good last time when beating ERICHT at Newbury in November and if he stays he will run a big race. KRUZHLININ went in for me on the blog last time at Haydock and he stayed very well up that hill. He’s a previous winner of this and despite being raised 10lbs to a mark of OR146, I still think that’s short of what he could be. The revert to hurdles was to put some confidence in his jumping after facing the big National fences. I think the hurdles and the confidence of his last win will have sharpened his jumping up. He stays forever and ion he jumps he wins I think.

I have put up the last three winners of the Pertemps Hurdle at Warwick on the blog. FLINTHAM, JOIN THE CLAN and UNCLE JIMMY and it’s also where HOLYWELL caught my eye for his festival win. Warwick is an interesting course, and is generally quite easy to get a rhythm but in this race you tend to need to be up with the pace, a strongly run front end can leave the others caught too far behind, so it pays to go with a pace pusher who can stay. LOUGH DERG LEADER could be very smart and he looked it last time, but he came from off the pace, that puts me off him today and this is his biggest test to date. COGRY came back to form last time, but it was a nothing race and the change in conditions helped him but not his rivals. I’m opting for SAINT JOHN HENRY; he’s a nice weight for a 3m contest and he made all here last time, and course and distance form helps here. He’s been raised 7lbs for that win and I think he has another big race in him. The ground will suit and he needs to win this well for me to have a competitive chance in the final at the festival, so I reckon they’ll go for it with him and hit them hard from the front. Let’s hope he stays if they do that!

The Betfred Classic chase is a beauty. 20 old timers going at time over £3m6f – awesome! SEGO SUCCESS flatters to deceive but the first time blinkers may help, but I doubt it. KNOCKANRAWLEY was developing into a smart stayer before the lay off and I doubt he can be competitive back from a monster break, but his a notebook horse for the next race or two. SHOTGUN PADDY has showed a few glimpses but again he just doesn’t deliver when push comes to shove. I’m opting for HOUBLON DES OBEAUX, he ran a cracker behind NATIVE RIVER in the Welsh National last time, he has got a lot of weight but has carried it before. Charlie Deutch’s 3lbs will help and despite being 6lbs higher than when running in this last year he’s in much better form. He’s won off this mark before, will love the ground and he catches the eye a full 19lb lower than when running behind THE YOUNG MASTER and then CONEYGREE in the Denman Chase. You need a bit of class to win this, he has class and will run a cracker.

Selections

HOUBLON DES OBEAUX 3:35 WARWICK £5 win 14-1 William Hill

SAINT JOHN HENRY 2:25 Warwick £5 e\w 12-1 William Hill

KRUZHLININ 3:15 Kempton £5 win 5-1 Bet365

Blog Stats

Placed £150

Returns £193.75

Lanzarote Day – Kempton and Warwick

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Doffing my cap is the order of the day today to my fellow horse racing friends on here. The #twittergamble boys produced a beauty last week with SOMCHINE winning at 10-1 for @Tonythetyke, WALSER winning at 7-2 for @DazGilbert1 and UNIONISTE winning at 5-2 for @Fernando_RFC2 – spot on boys. Their selections for this week are below! As I say every week the boys are worth a follow! If you had put all four selections in a £1 Lucky 15 you would have had a profit return of £281 – great tipping fellas!

#Twittergamble

@DazGilbert1 YOUNG DOTTIE 1540 LINGFIELD

@Fernando_RFC2 WARRANTOR 1440 KEMPTON

@LiamKenniford SEGO SUCCESS 1355 WARWICK

@Tonythetyke CLOSING CEREMONY 1425 WARWICK

As for my own fortunes last week, not great is the best summation. Although TRIOLO D’ALENE ran well on poor ground and with Geraghty hardly touching him or making an effort watch him the next time he runs on good ground. Not a bad spectacle today although this is quiet time as we start to head towards trials day and the build up to the festival. Whatever your well earned money is on today, I wish you all the luck in taking some money of our old foe! Game on!

JOIN THE CLAN 1425 WARWICK (NAP) (WON 8-1 = £25.00)

Now as follows of the blog know I am always partial to trying to find a decent price horse in a handicap as my nap when and where one pops up. I think this fella is the answer today, my only real concern is the form of Jonjo O’Neill’s stable, at least he had a winner yesterday though! So why do I put my money on an outsider with not a win for a while! Well he could be really well handicapped today and he has a feather weight on his back. The last two runs he has shouldered 11st 12lbs and 11st 2lbs. He steps rightly so back up in class today and an apprentice taking 10lbs of in weight, so he’s on racing weight of 10st 2lbs. That weight around here in testing ground over 3m 2f could be crucial! Get on!

DELL ‘ARCA 1440 KEMPTON (NB) (unplaced = -£5.00)

he has lots of smart form in the book and I think the distance last time was far too long. He returns to a better target today and he has always promised to be a good thing and has been beaten by SLASH OF GINGE, LAC FONTANA and more recently CONEYGREE an his mark has always stayed high. WARRANTOR could be the danger but I think my home has all the class today.

MICKIE 1355 WARWICK (TREBLE) (unplaced = -£5.00)

she is back down to her last winning mark and has Dickie Johnson back on board, together they have won 3 out of her 4 success. She’s a good solid yardstick over hurdles and HIGHLAND RETREAT put her in her place last time but off level weights in mares only race. That one franked the form again this week and today my selection gets her 3lb allowance back which could make all the difference.

HAWKES POINT 1535 WARWICK (WON 17-2 = £26.56)

He has been given a real chance today! He is 6lbs better off after his Welsh National shambles but to put that in perspective its a 4lb lower mark today thayhn when he was piped by MOUNTAINOUS in the same race last year, just beating TIDAL BAY too. Interestingly today he is tried in first time blinkers, good old MON PARRAIN was the same last week and we know what happened there. This is his best chance of a big race success for me.

My Dad’s Selections are :

AWAYWITHTHEGREYS 1425 WARWICK (PU = -£5.00)

WARRANTOR 1440 KEMPTON (unplaced = -£5.00)

HOWARDS LEAGACY 1515 KEMPTON (unplaced = -£5.00)

CARRUTHERS 1535 WARWICK (PU = -£5.00)

STANDINGS

FATHER 5-5 SON

PROFIT

FATHER -£24.66

SON £111.06