Cheltenham 2013 Day 3

 
Day two was just as action packed and eventful as the first wasn't it! SPRINTER SACRE has the potential to be one of the all time greats, what a performance that was. How good is it to see jumping gods like him! I felt for BOSTON BOB today but I still think my tip LORD WINDERMERE would have beaten him. I also felt RIVAL D'ESTRUVAL may well have gone on to beat BACK IN FOCUS and I was relieved I had a wager on both!
 
So on to day three and one of my big fancies for the whole week.
 
1.30 JEWSON NOVICES CHASE

DYNASTE is an obvious pick for this race, however I feel a drop back in trip is against him and the stable aren't exactly flying at that moment and 13/8 at the time of writing this is short. CAPTAIN CONAN is an obvious choice too but he had to work hard last time to beat THIRD INTENTION. I'm therefore opting for TEXAS JACK (unplaced) who has some very smart form. He split BOSTON BOB and LORD WINDERMERE last time out and look what they did yesterday. He has also finished behind BACK IN FOCUS when 3 miles looked long for him. Unlike the style of BOSTON BOB and LORD WINDERMERE he is better at this trip and has to have a fantastic chance.
 
2.05 PERTEMPTS FINAL

This is one of my top selections for the festival. HOLYWELL (nap) (WON – 25-1) has performed gamely all year with four gutsy performances. He looked even more effective when being stepped up to three miles. Running in snatches last time cost him the race but he showed immense battling qualities to stay on up the hill behind ELY BROWN. The trip, the speed of the race, the pure test of stamina and more importantly the track will play into his strengths. I can see him being delivered over the last just behind and then bound on up to the line. He's my best bet of the day. I am also having an each way squeak on ACCORDING TO TREV (unplaced) who will appreciate the drying ground and you cannot ignore the win he had here in October.
 
2.40 RYANAIR CHASE

MENORAH (PU) is a favourite of mine and I have to side with him in this despite the worry of the poor form of the stable. In my opinion this distance and this track bring the best out of him. His performance when beating HUNT BALL at Kempton had to be noted as he probably hated the ground. He is impressive here as I said with 3 wins and a place from 6 runs. He has the class and remember he did beat CUE CARD here in the STAN JAMES INTERNATIONAL HURDLE a couple of years ago and despite getting beat in the HALDON GOLD CUP to CUE CARD he did give him 3 lbs that day. I'm hoping what I've stated backs up my gut! With the ground drying I am also having a little nibble at ALBERTAS RUN (PU) his record here speaks volumes and but for the ridiculous winter we've had he would have been our sooner. He's pure class and depending on how much the ground dries he could be a huge price for a horse of his stature.
 
3.20 LADBROKES WORLD HURDLE

A wide open contest in my opinion, the injury to BIG BUCKS gives plenty of these a shout. None more so than REVE DE SIVOLA who was very impressive last time. OSCAR WHISKY proved the doubters wrong last time by staying the distance. However, I'm opting for WONDERFUL CHARM (unplaced) this horse has been kept for this since the forecast was to be dry. He takes his chance here instead of the Coral Cup. Both the trainer and jockey think they potentially have a good one here, I'm happy to go with them judged on their experience of winning this. He has a fair bit to find on the figures, but he coud be anything. Well worth a sniff in a wide open contest!
 
4.00 BYRNE GROUP PLATE

I'm opting for an outsider in this who caught my eye last time out. HECTOR'S CHOICE (unplaced) ran an absolute stormer behind OPENING BATSMAN the other week at Kempton. He only dropped out close home and this drop to 2m5f will help. He won here last year in a Class 1 chase defeating AERIAL after getting nowhere near in this last year off a mark of 147. He's now rated 144 and I just fancy him to run well on better ground and as I say he really caught my eye last time out.
 
4.40 FULKE WALWYN KIM MUIR CHASE

PRINCE OF PIRATES (unplaced) for me is the answer here. He is a progressive horse, who despite a few dodgy jumping rounds produced a good effort at Kempton last time. He is another one that prefers good ground and has won round here before. A talented amateur jockey on board with a few big races successes this year will also help. Bring on the bucks.
 
5.15 CROSS COUNTRY CHASE – re-arranged.
 
I don't really like or pay much attention to these races so am just looking at form briefly for this and suggest taking a chance with the French one, especially if the ground is tacky. So for me SACREE TIEPY (unplaced) is the selection.

After a couple of successful days so far, I'm hoping for another few wins here, especially HOLYWELL. Enjoy the day whatever, I'm n a course all afternoon so will have no idea what's been going on!

Here's a summary of my tips :

1.30 TEXAS JACK (nb)

2.05 HOLYWELL (nap) (WON – 25-1) ACCORDING TO TREV (ew)

2.40 MENORAH (treble) ALBERTAS RUN (ew)

3.20 WONDERFUL CHARM

4.00 HECTORS CHOICE (ew)

4.40 PRINCE OF PIRATES

5.15 SACREE TIEPY
 
Advertisements

Super Saturday

The Cheltenham festival is getting ever closer and things are hotting up on the NH front. What a cracking day's racing we have in store today, with potential Gold Cup horses having their final runs before the big race. A hot handicap hurdle at Newbury to whet the appetite too. Then there's a decent card at Warwick with some Cheltenham fancies there. All in all I'm really looking forward to today. Hopefully I can put up a few winners for people too. I had a nice one in mid-week with O CROTAIGH winning on his favourite track, what a price he was too.
 
Anyway, on to today's selections :
 
VAGO COLLONGES 1640 NEWBURY (nap) – (2nd – 3-1) won two from two in France and the form of the last race is pretty damn good. One of Nicholls' other new recruits was fourth in that race (PTIT ZIG) and he won well on Wednesday at Ludlow defeating the highly thought of New Year's Eve. My selection also defeated one of the top hyped horses in France at the moment. This one could be special!
 
MIAS BOY 1615 LINGFIELD (nb) – (2nd – 5-1) one of my old favourites and these days needs everything to drop right. Has improved form in recent runs and is still on a good mark. Was trying to get there last time but left it a little late, hopefully he'll pick his way through in the final furlong today.
 
COTTON MILL (treble) – (2nd – 9-1) I have been waiting for this one to run all season. I was thoroughly impressed with him last year and he was moving just as well as SIMONSIG at the Festival before crashing through the barrier and running out. In a race like this you must be ahead of the handcapper and I think judged on his potential he has a pretty damn good mark. The only doubt for me is the ground, but I don't think it is as soft as everyone thought and he has won on good to soft in the past. Huge each way chance! I'm also going to have an each way dabble on BABY MIX, another one of mine that I follow to the ends of the Earth and he has been terrible this year so far. There must have been something amiss and a break may have helped to rejuvenate him and 33-1 is huge!
 
MENORAH 1425 NEWBURY – (3rd – 7-1) I think the step up to three miles will really suit him and allow him to get into a rhythm that he needs. He was impressive last time I thought in the Peterborough and whilst SILVINIACO CONTI is a good horse he is giving weight away and has had a couple of tough races, him being odds on is crazy in my opinion. My selection is a smart horse and he MAY just turn into a potential high class stayer.
 
KNOCK A HAND 1350 NEWBURY – (unplaced) he won this last year and has conditions to suit again. He is potentially dangerous back over hurdles only 5lbs higher than when taking this last year. The concern is his poor form over fences!
 
SHOOTERS WOOD 1500 NEWBURY – (unplaced) he impressed me last time at Cheltenham and whilst this is a further step up, he seems to be progressive and talented. I loved his attitude and he will need to dig in today to take this, the ground is fine and I'm hopeful of another big performance. EDGARDO SOL is the danger for me, not a lot between them!
 
I'm also going to spend a penny or two on TEMPLE ROAD 1510 LINGFIELD – (WON 7-2) denied a hattrick last time in better company, todays drop in class should suit again and he should be thereabouts.
 
Now that one of my favourite little tracks WARWICK has got the go ahead I'm doing a little Lucky 15 there.
 
DORMOUSE 1255 – (unplaced) has won a few times here and will like the softer ground. Drops back to her preferred level and could run a big race at a big price.
KAFFIE 1330 – (4th – 7-1) another that returns to an optimum trip and has form on heavy ground. Got pipped by KELLES BELLE last year and is 5lbs better off today. Real good chance.
DOESLESSTHANME 1405 – (4th – 7-1) won three on the bounce last year over shorter than this and has been running against hot opposition this year so far. This could be his return to winning ways.
FAULTLESS FEELINGS 1515 – (unplaced) ran very well on his return at Newbury behind AFRICAN GOLD who won well again on Thursday. He stayed on towards the end of his last race on Boxing Day but was too far adrift to catch the front two. Big chance today!
 
If you are having a bet, please remember these are my selections and my opinions! Everyone has different viewpoints and thats why we love this game so much! Please bet within your means if you're having a flutter.
 
Best of luck!
 

Kempton Tips

 
I hope everyone had a lovely Christmas and now we've got the other side I'm sure you're all gearing up for New Year. It's a shame the Welsh National is off, it is one of my favourite races of the year. Roll on the 5th Jan for the re-scheduling, although the way this weather is carrying on, I doubt it will be fit then!
 
Here are my selections for today :
 
KAFFIE 1330 Kempton (nb) – (unplaced) shaped up to being a decent staying Hurdler last year and his recent course and distance run was not bad and that will surely have sharpened him up for today. Ground should be ok, I hoping that last run has got him tiptop.
 
MENORAH 1405 Kempton (nap) – (WON 7-2) is really hit and miss but is no doubt the class act in the race. His reappearance was disappointing but I'm hoping today will be a hit day and he will come off the pace set by FOR NON STOP and stay on in the final furlong.
 
WISHFULL THINKING 1440 Kempton (treble) – (unplaced) another class horse and is getting back to running like his best. I think the ground will help him today to overcome SANCTUAIRE who will probably go off like a rocket again. He should have the staying power to win this and in receipt of weight from Sanctuaire he has the best chance.
 
ABLE DEPUTY 1545 Kempton – (unplaced) has form on heavy and will need to step up on his Sandown second. Was a hot favourite at Haydock on Saturday before tipping up at the first, providing that hasn't affected his confidence I'm hoping for a big run.
 
Also having a wager on JEZKI (WON 11-8) and PRINCE OF PIRATES (unplaced) over at Leopardstown and also having a flutter at a short price on DRAWNFROMTHEPAST 1215 LINGFIELD (WON 4-6) and fancy BILLSAGREY (unplaced) in the last at Wetherby.
 
If you are having a wager please bet within your means and lets hope we can put the 'brollies away soon.