Good morning all! The blog is being written sat outside my caravan in sunny Looe. I'm just at the start of hopefully a cracking two weeks of sunshine, pasties and cream teas! A really good day of racing ahead – if you're having a flutter, good luck, and hopefully I can find a few here.
THE BANDIT'S TREBLE
ES QUE LOVE 1515 ASCOT (nap) – (unplaced) cliff horse alert! I love this fella and he has been running consistently well this season, with I think 16 runs already under his belt! With the early entry on this race he is effectively 6lb well in and considering his last few runs that can't be sniffed at. Olivier Peslier rode his aggressively when they were paired up last and he should do the same today on a track that will suit. If he has chance to win a race, today has to be the day!
COULSTY 1630 NEWMARKET (nb) – (2nd – 9-4) absolutely demolished his rivals first time out at Leicester and despite his no show in the Norfolk he should bounce back today and I think the 3-1 as I write this is very big! Expecting him to put this to bed.
SIRIUS PROSPECT 1420 YORK (treble) – (WON 11-2) was a very smart sprinter a couple of years ago and has lost his way. This type of race may be more his level and he could bounce back today, especially without Shane Kelly on board.
BACCARAT 1530 YORK – (unplaced) won over course and distance and has dead-heated this year. Forget his last run and with a resproduction of previous efforts here has a great each way shout.
NEIGHBOTHER 1715 YORK – (unplaced) won a decent maiden well at Warwick and was then pitched in the deepend a bit. He should have the quality take this and may then head handicapping soon.
I also fancy these two each way at Ascot.
MAHLAH 1405 – (unplaced) could have been overlooked by Hughes and the betting market to be honest. His win at Doncaster was decent and the form has been franked since.
MACHETE MARK 1440 ASCOT – (2nd – 8-1) comes back here to run again after a decent performance at Royal Ascot. Interesting me on that alone!
BLOG STATS :
Naps 42/192 = 21.8%
Wins 169/959 = 17.6%
Placed 253/959 = 26.3%
Win and Placed = 44%
@Tweet_Naps overall record. Click the link. All Time Profit/Loss currently +£58.83
Derby day, steeped in history and THE race to win if you want to be a breeeding success. A unique race on a unique track always throws up bad luck in running and gives us a new superstar. It's the most famous race in the world, sit back and enjoy. Here are my best three today, plus a few others.
If you're having a flutter, good luck. Thanks for reading the blog and hopefully there are a few winners here today!
ASSIZES 1705 MUSSELBURGH (nap) – (3rd – 9-2) this horse really hasn't progressed as expected. This is a drop down in class and hopefully a confidence booster. He is fully 11lbs lower than when he ran Sir John Hawkwood close last year. The quicker ground will help and he should have too much class for these today.
MATROOH 1510 DONCASTER (nb) – (3rd – 11-4) a smooth course and distance success last time was impressive and was further franked by the runner up going and winning next time out. There should be more to come for this one.
LA FORTUNATA 1515 EPSOM (treble) – (unplaced) this horse hasn't won for a while and is consistently very good. Epsom form is key in these races and his form at the track reads 24322. He was beaten a short head last time and is a further pound better off with AJJAADD today. The drying ground will help further and he has a fantastic each way chance.
MARS 1600 EPSOM – (unplaced) this horse was favourite for this race before he even ran last year. He has plenty of speed in him and is a hold up horse and that could be key for me today, 9 outof the last 15 winners have been from off the pace. The O'Brien's will be wanting a strong pace to fully test the stamina of DAWN APPROACH (I don't think he will stay!), Richard Hughes is a master at judging pace as we saw yesterday in the Oaks and I reckon he could follow up here. If this guy stays balanced and is near the pace coming off Tattenham Corner he could bolt through.
NEIGHBOTHER 1405 EPSOM – (unplaced) this horse has strong 6f breeding being a brother to Age of Chivalry. He won well at Warwick last time and that form was franked when the runner up MIDNITE ANGEL won by 6 lengths next time out. This horse has potential to improve further.
I'm also having an each way flutter on my old cliff horse ES QUE LOVE 1545 DONCASTER – (unplaced) he's back at 7f on good ground and has dropped a few pounds to below his last winning mark.
BLOG STATS :
Naps 39/175 = 22.3%
Wins 161/884 = 18.2%
Placed 235/884 = 26.6%
Win and Placed = 44.8%
@Tweet_Naps overall record. Click the link. All Time Profit/Loss currently +£63.33