Saturday selections

This time last year I backed the enigmatic TIDAL BAY when he won the Bet365 Gold Cup and he has gone from strength to strength since then and I still reckon he would have had a decent chance in the Gold Cup too. I hope I have found another winner of this curtain raiser again today. Next week see's the first Classic's of the season and lets hope we have more positive news to report on rather than the Al Zarooni affair. The week after I'm back at Warwick races for their evening meeting which I cant wait for!
 
On to today here are my best three plus a few others that I'm putting my well earned crust on. All the best of you're having a flutter today!
 
BALTHAZAR KING 1550 SANDOWN (nap) – (PU) travelled pretty well in the National and if that hasn't taken too much out of him he has a great chance here. Horses that have run in the National have a decent record in this and so does Phillip Hobbs. The drying ground will be in his favour and he is a cracking each way bet. A steady run from the front will see him thereabouts.
 
WISHFUL THINKING 1440 SANDOWN (nb) – (3rd – 5-1) ran well in the Champion Chase behind the Aeroplane and despite a pretty poor course record he has displayed better performances this year. SANCTUAIRE won this so impressively last year but he is not the same horse this year and all the messing around with tactics on how to try and defeat Sprinter Sacre may have had a detrimental effect.
 
AL KAZEEM 1515 SANDOWN (treble) – (WON 9-4) won well first time out last year when I backed him, injury prevented any more runs, however, if he has fully recovered the form alone of that race should see him take this. He also has form over this distance too, big chance!
 
GRANDAD'S HORSE 1405 SANDOWN – (unplaced) this horse is cracking value in my opinion. He was a good novice and ran in some good races with 5 wins too. A lengthy absence needed to be overcome last time and he needed that run. He has better ground today and has a great chance.
 
INVINCIBLE HERO 1420 RIPON – (unplaced) ran well last year in four starts after a successful year prior to that. His comeback run at Doncaster was decent and that should have him spot on for this and is getting bags of weight from the others.
 
DAZINSKI 1455 RIPON – (unplaced) is back on his last winnnig mark today after a few disappointing runs last year. I followed him in all of those too, he has the abiltiy to take this and the ground will help, hopeful of a big run today!
 
UNMOOTHAJ 1705 LEICESTER – (WON – 6-5) his fourth in a pretty decent maiden last year is by way the best form here. He was a bit green that day in the final stages and lost third at the post. With more experience under the belt a reproduction of the run should take this comfortably.
 
ES QUE LOVE 1930 HAYDOCK – (unplaced) after tipping him up on here about a step up to a mile his performance in the Spring Cup was a little disappointing. A drop back to seven on this quicker track will help him today and he's,top weight for a reason.
 
BLOG STATS :

Naps 37/168 = 22%
Wins 155/834 = 18.6%
Placed 224/834 = 27%

Win and Placed = 45.4%

@Tweet_Naps overall record. Click the link. All Time Profit/Loss currently +£57.83
 
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Wednesday selections

Not a bad day on the blog on Tuesday with all three selections placed. PATSY FINNEGAN 3rd at 13-2, IRISH BUCCANEER 2nd at 9-4 and TORNADO FORCE 3rd at 15-8. I had a good day on another twitter competition as I won the pigeonswoop with POLLY PEACHUM obliging at 25-1. I watched her win impressively at Warwick last year and fought with myself to put her on the blog but thought she had too much to do on the ratings and her recent form, shows what I know! She did prove today that she is one to follow. On to Wednesday and the Craven meeting plus Cheltenham – nice!
 
BAILEYS JUBILEE 1605 NEWMARKET (nap) – (unplaced) I love this horse and followed her all last year. Some are doubting whether she will stay the trip but I disagree I think a year older and stonger, the trip will suit. Her attitude is amazing and her form from last year is solid. Her third behind RODSHU QUEEN in the Cheveley Park is solid, as is her second behind CAY VERDE. I think she is a serious horse with a serious chance.
 
THE ROMFORD PELE 1520 CHELTENHAM (nb) – (unplaced) this horse is still a novice and whilst his last two performances in handicaps haven't bore fruit, I think the better ground will help here. He has run some cracking races as a novice defeating the likes of SIN BIN and SUERTE AL SALTO, who have both won since. His best form for me is when he got beat by COURT MINSTREL here in October, who has since won again but at Class 2 level. LANDSCAPE was well beaten by this my selection that day too and we know how I tipped him up the other week and he was running a huge race when falling. This horse has a great chance in this race in my opinion.
 
IMPERIAL CIRCUS 1445 CHELTENHAM (treble) – (unplaced) if this horse reproduces his run at Sandown in November behind TIME FOR SPRING then he could be very well treated on a mark 1lb lower. He has been crying out for this distance on better ground and could run a big race. I met this guy to at Philip Hobbs' yard when I visited it last summer and he's a beauty!
BLOG STATS :

Naps 36/159 = 22.6%
Wins 147/800 = 18.4%
Placed 215/800 = 26.8%

Win and Placed = 45.3%

@Tweet_Naps overall record. Click the link. All Time Profit/Loss currently +£64.33
 

Cheltenham 2013 Day 3

 
Day two was just as action packed and eventful as the first wasn't it! SPRINTER SACRE has the potential to be one of the all time greats, what a performance that was. How good is it to see jumping gods like him! I felt for BOSTON BOB today but I still think my tip LORD WINDERMERE would have beaten him. I also felt RIVAL D'ESTRUVAL may well have gone on to beat BACK IN FOCUS and I was relieved I had a wager on both!
 
So on to day three and one of my big fancies for the whole week.
 
1.30 JEWSON NOVICES CHASE

DYNASTE is an obvious pick for this race, however I feel a drop back in trip is against him and the stable aren't exactly flying at that moment and 13/8 at the time of writing this is short. CAPTAIN CONAN is an obvious choice too but he had to work hard last time to beat THIRD INTENTION. I'm therefore opting for TEXAS JACK (unplaced) who has some very smart form. He split BOSTON BOB and LORD WINDERMERE last time out and look what they did yesterday. He has also finished behind BACK IN FOCUS when 3 miles looked long for him. Unlike the style of BOSTON BOB and LORD WINDERMERE he is better at this trip and has to have a fantastic chance.
 
2.05 PERTEMPTS FINAL

This is one of my top selections for the festival. HOLYWELL (nap) (WON – 25-1) has performed gamely all year with four gutsy performances. He looked even more effective when being stepped up to three miles. Running in snatches last time cost him the race but he showed immense battling qualities to stay on up the hill behind ELY BROWN. The trip, the speed of the race, the pure test of stamina and more importantly the track will play into his strengths. I can see him being delivered over the last just behind and then bound on up to the line. He's my best bet of the day. I am also having an each way squeak on ACCORDING TO TREV (unplaced) who will appreciate the drying ground and you cannot ignore the win he had here in October.
 
2.40 RYANAIR CHASE

MENORAH (PU) is a favourite of mine and I have to side with him in this despite the worry of the poor form of the stable. In my opinion this distance and this track bring the best out of him. His performance when beating HUNT BALL at Kempton had to be noted as he probably hated the ground. He is impressive here as I said with 3 wins and a place from 6 runs. He has the class and remember he did beat CUE CARD here in the STAN JAMES INTERNATIONAL HURDLE a couple of years ago and despite getting beat in the HALDON GOLD CUP to CUE CARD he did give him 3 lbs that day. I'm hoping what I've stated backs up my gut! With the ground drying I am also having a little nibble at ALBERTAS RUN (PU) his record here speaks volumes and but for the ridiculous winter we've had he would have been our sooner. He's pure class and depending on how much the ground dries he could be a huge price for a horse of his stature.
 
3.20 LADBROKES WORLD HURDLE

A wide open contest in my opinion, the injury to BIG BUCKS gives plenty of these a shout. None more so than REVE DE SIVOLA who was very impressive last time. OSCAR WHISKY proved the doubters wrong last time by staying the distance. However, I'm opting for WONDERFUL CHARM (unplaced) this horse has been kept for this since the forecast was to be dry. He takes his chance here instead of the Coral Cup. Both the trainer and jockey think they potentially have a good one here, I'm happy to go with them judged on their experience of winning this. He has a fair bit to find on the figures, but he coud be anything. Well worth a sniff in a wide open contest!
 
4.00 BYRNE GROUP PLATE

I'm opting for an outsider in this who caught my eye last time out. HECTOR'S CHOICE (unplaced) ran an absolute stormer behind OPENING BATSMAN the other week at Kempton. He only dropped out close home and this drop to 2m5f will help. He won here last year in a Class 1 chase defeating AERIAL after getting nowhere near in this last year off a mark of 147. He's now rated 144 and I just fancy him to run well on better ground and as I say he really caught my eye last time out.
 
4.40 FULKE WALWYN KIM MUIR CHASE

PRINCE OF PIRATES (unplaced) for me is the answer here. He is a progressive horse, who despite a few dodgy jumping rounds produced a good effort at Kempton last time. He is another one that prefers good ground and has won round here before. A talented amateur jockey on board with a few big races successes this year will also help. Bring on the bucks.
 
5.15 CROSS COUNTRY CHASE – re-arranged.
 
I don't really like or pay much attention to these races so am just looking at form briefly for this and suggest taking a chance with the French one, especially if the ground is tacky. So for me SACREE TIEPY (unplaced) is the selection.

After a couple of successful days so far, I'm hoping for another few wins here, especially HOLYWELL. Enjoy the day whatever, I'm n a course all afternoon so will have no idea what's been going on!

Here's a summary of my tips :

1.30 TEXAS JACK (nb)

2.05 HOLYWELL (nap) (WON – 25-1) ACCORDING TO TREV (ew)

2.40 MENORAH (treble) ALBERTAS RUN (ew)

3.20 WONDERFUL CHARM

4.00 HECTORS CHOICE (ew)

4.40 PRINCE OF PIRATES

5.15 SACREE TIEPY
 

Warwick and the Lanzarote

Well what a fantastic Saturday of racing we have in store today. Warwick's card is really good and then you've got Kempton and the ultracompetitive Lanzarote Hurdle. I love Warwick, it's such a quaint little track sat in amongst such a historic city. This is their biggest jumps meeting and I hope they get the crowd in to fill the place! I'll be heading back their in May as we always do to their Ladies Day evening meeting, already looking forward to it. The tips were poor yesterday, sorry for that, Glen Countess never got in it and Caramelita had too much to do, and I still think a mile is to far for that one! Anyway, enjoy the racing today and below are my selections, let hope we can all draw some profit :
 
LOOSE CHIPS 1440 KEMPTON (nap) – (PU) it's a gamble napping in the most competitive race of the day but there is some real value here I reckon. My selection ticks all the boxes in terms of trends, inlcuding his age and experience. Yes this is a step up but why not, he has won his last two on soft and heavy going away and in some style. He's up twenty pounds for those two wins but that may not stop him here. If he gets away from them they may not get back to him. I am also going to put up UNCLE JIMMY as an each way option in the race. He is a novice but must be thought well of by the Hobbs team to be entered in this. He defeated MEGANISI over this distance on soft ground earlier in the year. MEGANISI has since defeated AAIM TO PROSPER in a class three and we know what a decent flat horse he was!
 
HOLYWELL 1425 WARWICK (nb) – (2nd 11-2) ran a cracking race when second to TRUSTAN TIMES over 3 m at Haydock. He was crying out for an extended trip after another couple of great runs when second to SIMONSIDE and ON THE RIGHT PATH. This trip over an extra furlong will suit as will the conditions, TRUSTAN TIMES gave the form a boost when finishing third behind REVE DE SIVOLA in the Long Walk Hurdle. Really fancy this one to finallly win today!
 
AURORAS ENCORE 1535 WARWICK (treble) – e/w (unplaced) I can't beleive this horse is currently trading at between 25-1 and 33-1. He's not top weight for nothing and in these staying chases it sometimes proves sensible to stay with the top weight. He was beaten a short head by MERIGO in last season's Scottish National. Today is the first time since then that he is running over more than 3m 1f since then. The extended trip will play to his strengths and the others won't be able to go too fast and get away. I tipped up HEY BIG SPENDER in this last year off top weight and I'm hoping this boy can do the same!
 
Those are my top three bets for today. I'm also having a small wager on these below :
 
HOLD ON JULIO 1330 KEMPTON – (2nd 5-2) reverts to hurdles after frankly disappointing when unseating last time at Ascot and before that behind BOBS WORTH in the Hennessey. He just hasn't looked like his old self, so this looks like a confidence booster. He has the class to destroy these!
TRIANGULAR 1405 KEMPTON – (unplaced) was second in this last year and has been in higher company than this and suffering. This is his ideal trip and more of his standard.
BAILE ANRAI 1515 KEMPTON -(4th 7-1) last time out was a huge disappointment behind ROBERTO GOLDBACK, he just never ran to promise. Something had to be amiss, if he recaptures the form that saw the defeat of MICS DELIGHT at Market Rasen on his last run then he has a great chance here.
I also hope DURSEY SOUND (PU) can defeat the New One at Warwick and finally after HIGHLAND LODGE's (3rd 6-5) impressive win at CHELTENHAM last time I have to side with him. Also a form boost there too, as RED ROCCO who he beat by 5l last season has since won two races.
 
If you are having a bet today, remember to do within your means. If you have liked what you have read then please give the blog a retweet on Twitter or subscribe to follow. Good luck today, let's hope there's a fe winners above!
 

Monday Tips

Sunday's blog chucked up just one solitary winner that was odds on so nothing to shout about there then. The nap DANCING WELCOME ran ok for most of the race and still appears to be in the handicappers grip!
 
Lets hope these three today fair a little better :
 
SOLFILIA 1530 KEMPTON (nap) – (unplaced) is 7lbs lower than his last handicap mark when he canme second. Since then he has ran in two Class 1 Listed races taking on the likes of Harris Tweed. A drop back down to a Class 4 handicap today and on these terms could be favourable.
 
ROMAN SENATE 1600 KEMPTON (nb) – (4th – 16-1) threw his chances away last time when pulling far too hard. A good second here over a mile two furlongs before that has to put him in with a chance if he settles.
 
ORABORA 1410 KEMPTON (treble) – (3rd – 9-2) if the fall from last time's outing hasn't knocked the horses confidence then he should be thereabouts. Previous to the fall a good win over ROGER BEANTOWN at Chepstow over the distance and on soft ground showed him to have potential.
 
Hopefully these three will give us a shout for our money.
 

Kempton Tips

 
I hope everyone had a lovely Christmas and now we've got the other side I'm sure you're all gearing up for New Year. It's a shame the Welsh National is off, it is one of my favourite races of the year. Roll on the 5th Jan for the re-scheduling, although the way this weather is carrying on, I doubt it will be fit then!
 
Here are my selections for today :
 
KAFFIE 1330 Kempton (nb) – (unplaced) shaped up to being a decent staying Hurdler last year and his recent course and distance run was not bad and that will surely have sharpened him up for today. Ground should be ok, I hoping that last run has got him tiptop.
 
MENORAH 1405 Kempton (nap) – (WON 7-2) is really hit and miss but is no doubt the class act in the race. His reappearance was disappointing but I'm hoping today will be a hit day and he will come off the pace set by FOR NON STOP and stay on in the final furlong.
 
WISHFULL THINKING 1440 Kempton (treble) – (unplaced) another class horse and is getting back to running like his best. I think the ground will help him today to overcome SANCTUAIRE who will probably go off like a rocket again. He should have the staying power to win this and in receipt of weight from Sanctuaire he has the best chance.
 
ABLE DEPUTY 1545 Kempton – (unplaced) has form on heavy and will need to step up on his Sandown second. Was a hot favourite at Haydock on Saturday before tipping up at the first, providing that hasn't affected his confidence I'm hoping for a big run.
 
Also having a wager on JEZKI (WON 11-8) and PRINCE OF PIRATES (unplaced) over at Leopardstown and also having a flutter at a short price on DRAWNFROMTHEPAST 1215 LINGFIELD (WON 4-6) and fancy BILLSAGREY (unplaced) in the last at Wetherby.
 
If you are having a wager please bet within your means and lets hope we can put the 'brollies away soon.
 

Monday tips

 
Well Sunday was a much better day with both PONT ALEXANDRE (3-1) and TIPSY DARA (9-2) winning in the treble. We were only just pipped to a great return by RIVER DRAGON (5-1) coming second at Carlisle.
 
Lets hope Monday can be just as fruitful.
 
UNCLE JIMMY 1330 Plumpton (nap) (2nd 2-1) – flopped last time out when upped to 3 miles. However, the form of the race he won first time out is pretty decent and he has to have a sniff dropped back in distance.
 
THUNDERSTORM 1535 Plumpton (nb) (WON 5-2) – some decent bits of form before his lay off. Looks a type to get off the mark in this race.
 
HODGSON 1345 Ffos Las (treble) (unplaced- just!) – has ran well this season including when a very good second last time out at Haydock. That should be enough to take this.
 

Cheltenham and Doncaster

 
Saturday racing is on us again. I'm a little late this morning due to a stonking hangover from the staff xmas party last night. It's been an interesting week in the racing world with the Kauto Star saga. I doubt very much that Clive Smith and the Nicholls yard will be afiliated anymore, sounds like a right tug of war and a bit petty to be honest.
 
Anyway on to my selections for today :
 
Cristal Bonus 1430 Cheltenham (nap) (PU – inj) is a very good horse and even more so on heavy ground. Really fancy him to take another big race for Nicholls and Walsh. He is a progressive horse and I don't think Walk On will stay up the hill.
 
According to Trev 1355 Cheltenham – (unplaced)Coneygree is a decent horse and is feared the most, but I know this fella will stay all day and in this ground he will have to.
 
Zarkandar 1505 Cheltenham (nb) -(won 6-5) receiving 4lb from the other main rivals and a previous run when he was impressive at Wincanton should see him prevail. I am getting more and more impressed with him each time I see him run.
 
Garynella 1320 Cheltenham – (3rd 11-4) is a new recruit to the Pipe yard and looks a decent prospect on paper. Hoping he's better than these and will start his career over here with a victory.
 
I also like the look of So Fine 1300 Doncaster (e/w),(unplaced) Divers 1410 Doncaster, (unplaced) Counsel 1445 Doncaster (e/w) (unplaced) and an old favourite of mine who has bags of ability and could take his race at a big price Door Boy 1520 Doncaster (treble).(unplaced)

Good luck if you're having a bet and remember these are my selections, you don't have to follow them. If you are having a flutter, please bet within your means.
 

Saturday Selections

The only photo fiiting for today's blog is that of the greatest flat horse ever IMO – FRANKEL. Today (hopefully) is the last chance we will see this beautiful creature doing what he was born to do. I feel very lucky to have been able to see this world class horse every time he has run, for me his Guineas win is still the one that I love the most. I just hope today goes well, for me if it's too soft then don't run him. If the ground was like this for any other race then I don't think they would run him. I'm sure it's only because it's his swansong that they are even contemplating it. To be fair though I'd rather remember him for his Juddmonte win than see him turned over on sloppy ground by a French horse that isn't fit to shoe him. For me I will be sad we won't see him in action again, farewell to the superstar, enjoy your retirement and I'm sure you'll enjoy your stud career!
 
On to the tips now – a couple of Lucky 15's for you all. Hope they produce some profit.
 
Number 1
 
Hold on Julio 1540 Cheltenham – was a very promising horse last year and flopped on his biggest race at he Festival. Surely something had to be amiss there. He will trounce these today if back to his best. (3rd – 13/2)
 
Rite of Passage 1345 Ascot – won the Gold Cup in 2010. Only had one run since then in a race that wasn't far enough. Two miles today should suit him. (WON 8-1)
 
Slade Power 1420 Ascot (nb) – was very impressive in his two Listed wins. He will enjoy the ground and is one to keep an eye on, I was very impressed by his battling performance to win at Haydock. Society Rock gave me a lovely profit last time out but I just feel he will get turned over today. (Unplaced)
 
Shirocco Star 1455 Ascot – this horse is ultra consistent with seconds in both the English and Irish Oaks. Has run a little flat too but I reckon today is the day to finally get her head infront, a perfect horse for Fallon. (2nd – 10-1)
 
Number 2

Big Easy 1620 Cheltenham – was a good novice last term. Won well twice over 20f on good to soft ground in a class 3 and class 2. This is more competitive but this boy could have plenty of improvement in him. (Unplaced)
 
Talkonthestreet 1400 Cheltenham – two wins over this trip in the spring showed some real class in him. A very creditable third to the excellent Ambion Wood at Perth followed and anything similar should see him take this. (4th)
 
Tartak 1430 Cheltenham – (NAP) was a very good horse but seemed to really disappoint on his last few runs for Tom George. Tim Vaughan is a trainer I like and he is very bullish about his chances. Three of the last five winners of this race have carried more than 11st 10lbs. He has a serious chance at a great price. (Unplaced)
 
Baby Mix 1505 Chletenham – (treble) this horse is one of my favourites and while his Festival run didn't work out he was very impressive at Kempton. He has the class and although giving 8lbs to Dodging Bullets will be tough he can do it. Paul Nicholls in his column today wasn't too bullish about this is one and said he will come on heaps for the run. (3rd – 5-2)
 
 
Fingers crossed we get some profit. Enjoy the racing and the finale of Frankel the equine god!
 

Saturday Selections

The only photo fiiting for today's blog is that of the greatest flat horse ever IMO – FRANKEL. Today (hopefully) is the last chance we will see this beautiful creature doing what he was born to do. I feel very lucky to have been able to see this world class horse every time he has run, for me his Guineas win is still the one that I love the most. I just hope today goes well, for me if it's too soft then don't run him. If the ground was like this for any other race then I don't think they would run him. I'm sure it's only because it's his swansong that they are even contemplating it. To be fair though I'd rather remember him for his Juddmonte win than see him turned over on sloppy ground by a French horse that isn't fit to shoe him. For me I will be sad we won't see him in action again, farewell to the superstar, enjoy your retirement and I'm sure you'll enjoy your stud career!
 
On to the tips now – a couple of Lucky 15's for you all. Hope they produce some profit.
 
Number 1
 
Hold on Julio 1540 Cheltenham – was a very promising horse last year and flopped on his biggest race at he Festival. Surely something had to be amiss there. He will trounce these today if back to his best.
 
Rite of Passage 1345 Ascot – won the Gold Cup in 2010. Only had one run since then in a race that wasn't far enough. Two miles today should suit him.
 
Slade Power 1420 Ascot (nb) – was very impressive in his two Listed wins. He will enjoy the ground and is one to keep an eye on, I was very impressed by his battling performance to win at Haydock. Society Rock gave me a lovely profit last time out but I just feel he will get turned over today.
 
Shirocco Star 1455 Ascot – this horse is ultra consistent with seconds in both the English and Irish Oaks. Has run a little flat too but I reckon today is the day to finally get her head infront, a perfect horse for Fallon.
 
Number 2

Big Easy 1620 Cheltenham – was a good novice last term. Won well twice over 20f on good to soft ground in a class 3 and class 2. This is more competitive but this boy could have plenty of improvement in him.
 
Talkonthestreet 1400 Cheltenham – two wins over this trip in the spring showed some real class in him. A very creditable third to the excellent Ambion Wood at Perth followed and anything similar should see him take this.
 
Tartak 1430 Cheltenham – (NAP) was a very good horse but seemed to really disappoint on his last few runs for Tom George. Tim Vaughan is a trainer I like and he is very bullish about his chances. Three of the last five winners of this race have carried more than 11st 10lbs. He has a serious chance at a great price.
 
Baby Mix 1505 Chletenham – (treble) this horse is one of my favourites and while his Festival run didn't work out he was very impressive at Kempton. He has the class and although giving 8lbs to Dodging Bullets will be tough he can do it. Paul Nicholls in his column today wasn't too bullish about this is one and said he will come on heaps for the run.
 
 
Fingers crossed we get some profit. Enjoy the racing and the finale of Frankel the equine god!