Cheltenham Day Two

kings-palace-leads-sausalito-sunrise_3239833.jpg

What a cracking first day of the festival that was. Some fantastic finishes, an upset or two but generally a brilliant start. Not a bad day on the betting front as BUVEIR D’AIR won for the blog, RIVER WYLDE was placed, as was TWO TAFFS. I think we may not see HOLYWELL again, he folded tamely and he has been like that all year. I was disappointed with LIFEBOAT MONA’S run and I think soft ground may well be the key to her. How impressive was BUVEUR D’AIR though, a superb performance. On to day two and hopefully a few more pointers and a winner or two.

Neptune Investment Novices’ Hurdle

NEON WOLF is the deserving favourite for this and he has looked very impressive on every run this year. His last appearance in the Rossington Main Supreme trial was on soft ground and he destroyed the field. As we saw today the times were quite slow and there still appears to be some give in the ground. He will be many people’s festival banker and should run a very good race. He looks a superstar in the making and tomorrow may set him up for that bright future. The concern is that there is very little value in his price.  MESSIRE DES OBEAUX beat BALLYANDY in December on good to soft ground and gave him 7lbs. BALLYANDY then franked the form in the Betfair hurdle beating MOVEWITHTHETIMES and CLYNE in a decent race. BALLYANDY had a hell of a rough race in the Supreme and I think would have finished in the top three but for his passage. WILLOUGBY COURT is another that interests me; he went straight into my notebook when he beat GAYEBURY at Warwick by a distance. He also had the smart PEREGRINE RUN behind him. That one had won here in a Grade 2 beating both WHOLESTONE and WEST APPROACH. He is a very exciting prospect and so long as the ground doesn’t dry too much he could run a big race at a very nice price.

SELECTION : WILLOUGBY COURT 14-1 Ladrokes

RSA Novices Chase

This has to be one of the most difficult races to pick a winner. Any one of these novice chasers could show the necessary improvement to win this, so my advice is don’t go too big. MIGHT BITE has won a couple of decent races and should have won a third but his price is way too short for a race of this nature and with so many potential improvers; plus as we have seen, he’s not the best jumper!! WHISPER has shown his connections the class he has always had more recently and we have had a flash back to his hurdling days when he was one of the top staying hurdlers. I’m not sure if he still likes this jumping game but he comes here in form. OUR KAEMPFER is an interesting runner at a decent price. He put a decent field to bed in a matter of strides last time and he has been a big 10lbs for that success. He has always been highly rated by his stable and ran well here last year over hurdles in the Pertemps, he could improve again. The one I can’t get away from is O O SEVEN. He looked very smart when winning here in November on good ground beating a good field including SIZING TENNESSEE. He couldn’t follow that up at Doncaster over three miles but that flatter track didn’t suit him in my opinion. It’s interesting that they are persevering with a three mile trip despite him having won two races over 2m4f. I have always thought he is a smart horse and I have to have a go at him in this off a mark of OR152.

SELECTION : O O SEVEN 16-1 CORAL

Coral Cup

This is another very tricky race and again keep your bets small. Anything could win this!!! TOMBSTONE is the worthy favourite and looks very nicely treated based on his defeat of JEZKI in a grade 3. His trainer had a cracking opening day and he could be potentially very smart. PEREGRINE RUN, as mentioned above is a smart horse and he has some solid form going into this and he also looks well treated on what he has achieved so far, he is 8-1 as I write this, but I can’t see him being that at the off tomorrow. I have followed OLD GUARD all year and my heart is ruling my head, but I have to give him another chance. He ran so well in the Cleeve last time on ground that he didn’t appreciate and prior to that had ran well behind MODUS in the Lanzarote. Good ground is key to him and he should get that here today and it will make all the difference. He really is a horses for courses horse and has won three times here; the last one of those off a mark of OR157 and full 7lbs less. He is my each way selection of the day.

SELECTION : OLD GUARD 25-1 Bet365

Queen Mother Champion Chase

One word DOUVAN….enough said!!!

Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase

I’m not normally too fussed about these races and don’t follow them. Tomorrow’s is different as my ante-post Grand National fancy SAUSALITO SUNRISE runs. He ran like a pig last time off a 3lb higher mark. He has the stamina for a race like this and was a close third in the Bet365 Gold Cup on the last day of last season off a mark of OR159. That indicates the class he potentially has and I’m expecting a big run tomorrow to try and win and to prep him for the big one. He has previously beat the current National favourite VIEUX LION ROUGE by 12 lengths off a mark two pounds less than this. Get on it!!! 16-1 with Paddy Power is a crazy price.

SELECTION : SAUSALITO SUNRISE 16-1 Paddy Power

Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle

DIVIN BERE is all the rage for this, rightly so after his defeat of MASTER BLUEYES who has since gone on and won the Adonis very easily. He has top weight but rightly so and he could take all the beating. DREAMCATCHING has been touted as a smart horse from the Nicholls yard and you have to listen to him in this race as he has won this 3 time sin recent years and also had the second on numerous occasions. I actually prefer DOLOS on this better ground and despite him only being placed or behind runners he has run in and against some smart animals. He only has a mark of OR 134 and that is generally around the winning mark for this race. I have to go with the potential of DIVIN BERE though, and I take note when a jockey like Noel Fehily starts talking about a good horse.

SELECTION : DIVIN BERE 5-1 CORAL

WEATHERBY’S CHAMPION BUMPER

This is another race that really doesn’t interest me too much. Willie Mullins is always multi-handed in this and is so again. CARTER MCKAY is the favourite and is a nice moving horse and generally favourites, or those in the top few of the market do well.SOMEDAY seems to have decent form and good run him hard and CAUSE TOUJOURS won very well but he hasn’t run for a while. I’m going to go for another Irish runner who has form on good ground and stayed on strongly for his success at Leopardstown last time, that is DEBUCHET.

SELECTION : DEBUCHET 10-1 Bet365

Selections for Day Two:

£10 win SAUSALITO SUNRISE 4:10 16-1 Paddy Power

£5win DIVIN BERE 4:50 5-1 CORAL

£2.50 e/w WILLOUGBY COURT 1:30 14-1 Ladbrokes

£2.50 e/w O O SEVEN 16-1 CORAL

 

 

Advertisements

Grand National Trial Day

Unknown.jpeg

The Grand National weights were out this week and one that immediately caught my eye was SAUSALITO SUNRISE. He is a decent horse and has a good weight off his current mark. He is running today at Ascot where I expect him to run very well in preparation for the big one. Ive taken an ante post bet of 50-1 for him.

On to today’s action and I’ll start with my national tip who runs in the race he won last year at Ascot; the Swinley Chase at 2:25. I really fancied him too run well in the Peter Marsh chase at Haydock last time but he unseated Dickie early. I thought he ran well at Cheltenham earlier in the year behind Theatre Guide and was starting to get going when hampered. After winning this race last year he ran well behind MANY CLOUDS at Kelso off a mark 8lbs higher than today. He is the same racing weight as winning this last year and seems to enjoy this track and I’m expecting a big run today and that will hopefully set him up nicely for the big one at Aintree.

I fancy FLINTHAM in the Reynoldstown to upset the two market leaders as he will go at it from the front and will love the ground. His price has seriously decreased since last night and he should run a big race.

The big handicap hurdle at 3:00 at Ascot is a cracking puzzle. DOESYOURDOGBITE found the pace and the quality of the Lanzarote too hot last time and this drop back down in class  may allow him to revert to his winning ways. TEMPLEROSS ran a cracker in that race but I feel it was a one-off. DIVINE SPEAR catches the eye after staying on well at Cheltenham last time but I’m taking a punt on CYRNAME at a decent price. He was a good horse in France and ran himself out of his British debut way back in November. Nicholls will have been doing lots of work at home with him and I like to look out for horses he puts away fro a while. Sean Bowen sits so quietly on horses and he will hopefully switch him off in behind; he COULD run a big race!

Onto the best race of the day, The Grand National Trial Chase. I have it down to two. BLAKLION really disappointed me when carrying my sheckles at Wetherby, and despite winning the RSA last year, he hasn’t shown me enough yet and I think this is too much for him. VINTAGE CLOUDs showed last time he can mix it with the big boys and despite falling in the Peter Marsh, ran very well. My two though are KRUZHLININ and VICENTE. The former was tipped by me on this blog for the fixed brush here, and horse for course at Haydock is important. He only found OUR KAEMPFER too good on quicker ground last time. My worry is the consistency and bravery of his jumping and whether this extended trip will suit! VICENTE then, I tipped him to win the Scottish National last year and he is only 1lb higher than that victory today. The ground hasn’t been right for him a few times this year and I thought he ran a cracking race behind a rampant ZIGA BOY last time at Donny. He will appreciate the drying ground and the trip and I think he will run a big race to prep him for the big one at Aintree. He gets my nod over KRUZHLININ.

Selections

£5 win SAUSALITO SUNRISE 2:25 Ascot (11/2 – BET365) (3rd)

£2.50 e/w CYRNAME 3:00 Ascot (20-1 – BET365) (UP)

£5 win FLINTHAM 1:50 Ascot (5-1 – BET365) (2nd)

£2.50 e/w VICENTE 3:15 Haydock (9-1 Paddy Power) (UP)

Results

Staked £240

Returns £283.75

Haydock

sausalito-sunrise-tom-obrien-ascot_3418762.jpg

Not much last week although both KRUZHLININ and HOUBLON DES OBEAUX ran good races. With the recent cold snap taking Ascot and Taunton there is only racing at Haydock today to look forward to. There are some nice races though and a few competitive handicaps.

The Peter Marsh Chase is the feature and there are several horses with great chances. It’s the first time we will cast our eyes on French import ALARY, surely not another Gold Cup candidate for Colin Tizzard. I think French horses need a race or two in England to adapt so I’m happy to watch him. DEFINITELY RED ran a cracker lat time when winning the Rowland Meyrick Chase at Wetherby and he has good course form here and should run a solid race, he has to place. BRISTOL DE MAI continues to run solid races but I just don’t think he has got when push comes to shove. VINTAGE CLOUDS, as a novice, and a light weight catches my eye, but no seven year old has won this for over 20 years. I’m opting for SAUSALITO SUNRISE. He is a very good staying chaser and he won a couple of smart handicaps last year and is 8lbs lower in the ratings than when 4th behind MANY CLOUDS at Kelso last year. He ran very well at Cheltenham last time and caught my eye. He was moving well when hampered as he was just starting to make a challenge. He may have the required class to take this and is a smart jumper and stayer.

CULTRAM ABBEY is one to note back over hurdles in the last at Haydock. He won a class 3 hurdle beating MIJAAR over slightly longer and I’m interested in the switch back to hurdles when he showed promise first time back over fences this year. The apprentice takes 5lbs off his back and he could run a big race at a decent price.

£5 e/w SAUSALITO SUNRISE 3:15 Haydock (12-1 Willam Hill)

£5 win CULTRAM ABBEY 3:50 Haydock (11-1 BET365)

Staked £170

Returns £193.75