The Lincoln – The flat is back!

Photo courtesy of sportinglife
 
So here we are again, the flat season is back! As always we kick off at Donny with the Lincoln. I was fortunate enough to go last year and really enjoyed it! I've had a good look at the stats and form today and hopefully have found a few with a chance. Good luck with whatever you're on today!
 
The twitter gamble boys have opted for the following :
@Tonythetyke – BIG JIM UTTOXETER 1335
@liamkenniford – CALIFORNIA CHROME 1700 MEYDAN
@Fernando_RFC2 – AETNA 1435 DONCASTER
@dazgilbert1 – PERSONAL TOUCH 1605 CHELMSFORD
 
MASAMAH 1530 CHELMSFORD (nap) (Unplaced = -£5.00)
Ran a cracker last time at Lingfield in a Listed race and got a real head start with his speed only to be pipped by a few that were flying including the smart winner PRETEND. He looked like he may hold on that day and if he gets a flying start again there is nothing of that calibre to peg him back. This is a huge drop in class, he has 4lbs more weight the saddle but the apprentice takes 3 off, meaning he's effectively one pound higher in a class 2 handicap on the back of a smart run in a Listed race. Must have a great chance.
 
ASTAIRE 1435 DONCASTER (nb) (2nd – 2-1 = £1.25)
He has a plum draw and is tackling much easier opposition here today. He's a pound lower than his last winning mark which was OR111 when he beat HOT STREAK in the Middle Park Stakes. He went up against the big guns after that in Group 1's and he was a half length behind MAAREK in the Duke of York Clipper Stakes at York too. This is much easier and I can't see him being beaten. AETNA is a classy mare and goes well fresh but I'm not sure it will be soft enough for her
 
WHAT ABOUT CARLO 1545 (treble) (4th – 20-1 = £12.50)
This as always is a tough one to crack. You need a smart horse with a touch of class! GM HOPKINS and MANGE ALL have closely matched form which is smart but I think the Gosden horse has the edge. BRONZE ANGEL won the Cambridgeshire and then followed up at Ascot last year but surely ts is too competitive and too much off his mark of OR111. GABRIAL has bags of class but his head isn't screwed on and you never know what you're going to get. MONDIALISTE is interesting being bought by a shrewd yard out of Freddie Head's yard in France. He could be anything and is maybe one to follow this year. My option is WHAT ABOUT CARLO, he's got a decent draw to go either way and I have always thought he had a bit of class. He beat END OF LINE easily off OR85 and then followed that up by beating BLACK SHADOW on Derby day at Epsom, that was when he went in the notebook off OR94. He was then thrown in to the deep end in the Celebration Mile at Goodwood and then back into a handicap off a mark of OR100. His warm up race at Lingfield in the Winter Derby Trial but he didnt like the surface and it was too hot. Back in this company he has a cracking chance.
 
SWIFTLY DONE 1510 DONCASTER (unplaced = -£5.00)
this horse hasn't run for a while but he was one who I had my eye on a couple of seasons ago. He was runnnig consistently well in some decent handicaps and I always keep my eye on the trainers horses up north. He is only 2lbs higher in the ratings than his last win when beating CLASSIC COLORI over this course and distance. He then followed that up at Newcastle and had MEMORY CLOTH and EXTRATERRESTRIAL behind him. He ran ok in the Betfred Mile thay year at Goodwood and had BELGIAN BILL and PRONCE OF JOHANNE beat. It's a tough ask on his first run but like I said he has consistent form and is worth a go.
 
My Dad's selections are :
ASTAIRE 1435 DONCASTER (2nd = £1.25)
DANCE AND DANCE 1510 DONCASTER (unplaced = -£5.00)
BRONZE ANGEL 1545 DONCASTER (unplaced = -£5.00)
SAOI 1450 KEMPTON (unplaced = -£5.00)
 
STANDINGS
FATHER 9-9 SON
PROFIT
FATHER – £81.71
SON £151.71
 
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Badger Ales and Doncaster

Last Saturday brought a bit of luck back to the blog with TIDAL BAY and ROLLING ACES winning and the best three treble was nearly completed but CHRIS PEA GREEN was just foiled! What a performance we got again from Tidal Bay, he is such as class horse and to do it at his age, simply brilliant! I'm gearing up for Cheltenham next week and can't wait. If you're having a flutter today good luck and hopefully I can find one or two here!
 
ETON RIFLES 1425 DONCASTER (nap) – won this last year and comes here on the back of an eye catching reappearance at Ascot. He is back to his preferred 6f today on ground he will love. He is also getting 6lbs off JACK DEXTER in the race and that will prevent the gallant horse beating my tip.
 
COTTON MILL 1405 WINCANTON (nb) – this boy is smart and he showed that when being close to My Tent Or Yours on his reappearance at Newbury last year. Forget after that as he never played ball! The year before he was cruising upsides SIMONSIG at the festival before going through the side of a hurdle. He has a big chance in this today.
 
PANTXOA 1440 WINCANTON (treble) – this horse has just got better and better and is up to this level in my opinion. The pace of the race will suit as he stays on at the end, as will the track with the long run in. POUNGACH is the danger if he jumps better.
 
SWNYMOR 1535 DONCASTER – looked a class hurdler before falling last year at the last on his debut. Things then never worked out, including on his stable debut. He has some good form on soft ground on the level and I find it interesting that they opt for this rather than his engagement at Wincanton. The ground is obviously key. Smart each way chance!
 
JABHAAT 1500 DONCASTER – has some interesting form, notibly behind THOMAS HOBSON earlier this season, was then runner up in the race after that and comes here with a live chance. The ground is my worry, but if she handles it she has a good each way chance.
 
SWIFTLY DONE 1350 DONCASTER – ran well when fourth last week. Interestingly has never won over a mile but he was just getting going when prevented a run in the final furlong last week. Will love the ground again and is on the same mark, chance!
 
TIME FOR SPRING 1540 SANDOWN – won this last year and comes here on the same mark. He has a record of two wins from three here and must go well.
 
YOUNG SPARKY 1525 KELSO – I have followed this horse since he first ran and he didnt quite perform in two handicaps last year but is now put back in that sphere in a lower class and I have to stick with him!
 
BLOG STATS :

Naps 43/213 = 20.2%
Wins 179/1095 = 16.3%
Placed 284/1095 = 25.9%

Win and Placed = 42.3%

@Tweet_Naps overall record. Click the link. All Time Profit/Loss currently +£61.83

Charlie Hall Chase

Today sees the return of the jumping season. Am I looking forward to it, just a bit! My all time favourite horse, Tidal Bay, goes again aswell. The picture above is of him winning the Lexus Chase last year under an awesome ride from Ruby Walsh. There are some cracking races today and some old favourites and some potential new stars in the offering. This is what racing is all about!
If you're having a bet, good luck, and whatever happens lets hope all these favourites of ours get round in one piece. The Charlie Hall Chase is always the grand curtain raiser, today I'm not having a bet in the race as I think the up and coming horses have alot to find with Long Run, especially on softer ground.
 
CHRIS PEA GREEN 1445 ASCOT (NAP) – (2nd – 8-1) this horse is a potential huge improver this year and he ran very well behind Our Conor in the Triumph at Chletenham, despite not having a smooth run. He is a horse I will follow closely and with the conditions being a bit softer I think it will play to his strengths even more. COURT MINSTREL is a class horse and I backed him both times when winning las year, he is one to follow but I think the ground will be against him today, he needs genuine good ground in my opinion and I don't think he'll get it today.
 
ROLLING ACES 1505 DOWN ROYAL (NB) (WON – 9-4) Paul Nichols has an awesoem record in this race and I think my selection will win again for him. He ran some excellent races last year and his form with OPENING BATSMAN is strong despite him being pipped by his rival at Kempton. He has been targetted for this race and should deliver
 
TIDAL BAY 1500 WETHERBY (TREBLE) – (WON – 11-4) what a horse this guy is, and a real character too. Paul Nicholls has really got the best out of him and he won this race last year off the same mark. He went on to have an incredile season over the timber and compounded my fondness of him. At the weights he would have had a difficult time against AT FISHERS CROSS, however, now that foe is a non runner he has every chance of repeating his success. Win or lose I don't care, he's owes me nothing.
 
OPENING BATSMAN 1520 ASCOT – (PU) another horse that owes me nothing after winning at Kempton last year when I napped him on this blog. That was a smooth performance and there was alot to like. He is another horse with a big future and I think you can forget his run at Aintree towards the end of last year. He was tired, Aintree is a specialist course and BATTLE GROUP made it a ferocious pace which meant my boy had to be niggled along and he son faded. Today should be more smooth and pedestrian and his is a massive price considering ROLLING ACES is 2-1 fav for the Powers Irish Whiskey Chase.
 
FAIRY RAITH 1410 ASCOT – (unplaced) won here and at Haydock towards the end of last season and has very strong form in the book, including a defeat of CONQUISTO who franked the form last week under AP. Has lots of things in his favour and should run a big race.
 
SWIFTLY DONE 1420 NEWMARKET – (4th – 20-1) my old mate Declan Carroll sends a few to headquarters and he has a decent record there. My selection is running a pound below his last winning mark and cries out for soft/heavy ground. He has that today and could run a big race.
 
TULLIUS 1530 NEWMARKET (3rd – 7-2) I was really disappointed with his run when I napped him on here the other week, he obviously needed it. Let's hope today he shows his true colours, SOVEREIGN DEBT helped the form of his last success when running well in defeat the other week at Doncaster. Has to run better today!
 
PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE 1430 DOWN ROYAL – (3rd – 7-1) this guy was favourite for the National before injuring himself and I cannot believe he is 12-1 for this race, yes there are a few others that are well treated, but he has class and 3 miles in yielding ground is right up his street.
 
FINESSE 1600 NEWMARKET (unplaced) I watched this filly win well at Warwick earlier in the year, she has good form on quicker ground but also has won on soft. She was thrown in the deep end last time out in a Listed contest and drops back to Class 4 this time. She may be forgotten, but I haven't!
 
BLOG STATS :

Naps 43/213 = 20.2%
Wins 179/1095 = 16.3%
Placed 284/1095 = 25.9%

Win and Placed = 42.3%

@Tweet_Naps overall record. Click the link. All Time Profit/Loss currently +£61.83