This is my first blog for over a week, just haven't had the time recently and was in Warwick last weekend at their evening meeting. What a night that was, I had CAPO ROSSO there which won at 8-1, however, when the bookies first put the prices up for that race he was 20-1 in a few places. When I went back with my winning slip and the bookie saw my price his face was a picture! Happy days!
Anyway on to today after a belting week at York. There are some fantastic races on around the country today and have spent a good bit of time this morning on them. Got quite a few selections so have put up three Lucky 15's today, including my normal best three. Enjoy the racing and good luck.
Lucky 15 Number 1
IMPERIAL DJAY 1710 THIRSK (nap) – (unplaced) this horse hasn't quite hit form yet this season but is now an incredible 10lbs lower than his last win. He has two course and distance successes here, at todays class and class 5, both of those on good ground. The last time he won a class 4 was off a mark of 83 at Chester, today's mark…..83. This sprinters run well in behind and gradually their marks drop, I can see this boy bouncing back to form off this mark today.
BEAUTY PARLOUR 1550 NEWBURY – (NR) the doubt with some of these horses is whether they are actually group one class or not. With a Group 1 victory to her name over the distance this girl has that. The master Cecil will have used the winter to work out how to make her tick and her last run should be discounted on that alone. Massive chance today for me.
DICK BOS 1525 THIRSK – (unplaced) won well on softer ground last season at Windsor for the Hannon team last year and he caught my eye then. Mr O'Meara usually gets a grasp of new horses early in his yard and he showed a return to form at Ripon last time. He is 4 lb better off with Klynch for a one and a half length defeat and the trainer was bullish about his chances is morning.
CRUISETOTHELIMIT 1450 THIRSK – (unplaced) the reappearance second behind CHEWOREE is pretty decent form and he had excuses last time. CHEWOREE didnt exactly boost the form at York this week but threw his chances away at the start despite being very well fancied. With the ground a bit softer he has to have a huge chacnce and money has come already for him.
Lucky 15 Number 2
JEHANNEDARC 1405 NEWBURY (treble) – (3rd – 9-2) I was really impressed woth this horse's last run behind KHIONE last time. One the same mark and over slightly further those battling qualities should come in to play today. The booking of Ryan Moore is another huge plus.
HODGSON 1540 BANGOR – (WON 7-2) has yet to get off the mark but it is not for trying! After dropping another 3 lbs in the ratings and the application of head gear again may revitalise things. Today has to be the day!
RIOT OF COLOUR 1440 NEWBURY – (unplaced) I have backed this horse a few times and there has to be excuses for her latest terrible run. She is able to go on any ground and I reckon this drop back to 6f will suit her, she can use some of her reserves to come late up to the line. Could be a massive price due to that last poor run.
KITTEN ON THE RUN 1515 NEWBURY – (unplaced) this horse is the unknown quantity in the race. However, he is unbeaten and won at a mile last time at Listed Class and is bred to stay this trip. The trainer is very good with these middle distance horses and I think that he is pitching him in here for his first run reflects against some highly fancied types reflects his thoughts of the horse. Could muller these at a big price.
Lucky 15 Number 3
COMRADE BOND 1345 NEWMARKET – (unplaced) has three 7f successes to his name at Yarmouth. His comeback run there was decent and that could set him up nicely here. He has won at a higer level than this and wasnt far behind last time out.
CARAVAN ROLLS ON 1420 NEWMARKET – (unplaced) this horse won well first time out after a lay off last year and was an unlucky fifth last run. He is on the same mark as that performance and likes it running fresh. Lots of possibilities – one negative – Jamie Spencer!!
SECRETINTHEPARK 1455 NEWMARKET (nb) – (unplaced) this horse is one of mine to follow since winning well last season. I tipped him to win last time at the Guineas meeting and I thought that was impressive. I reckon there is still more to come and the doubters are out talking about others reversing the form. Not me, he has more to offer and his price may get bigger with the doubters!
DUNDONELL 1530 NEWMARKET – (WON 15-8) a class two year old and he put in some good runs. This return to 6f will help and I dont think anything else in this race has the ability to beat him. Simple as.
BLOG STATS :
Naps 39/173 = 22.5%
Wins 159/867 = 18.3%
Placed 230/867 = 25.4%
Win and Placed = 44.8%
@Tweet_Naps overall record. Click the link. All Time Profit/Loss currently +£60.33