Cheltenham Day Three

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A cracking day for the blog on day two with WILLOUGHBY COURT going in at 14-1. Hope you were on it too. He was so brave and deserved his success. The Mullins bubble seems have burst and his horses don’t look to be moving at all – what happened to Douvan. My National tip SAUSALITO SUNRISE went for a day out plain and simple; Ive watched it back and he has a steady race and Dickie never touches him. Bring on the big race. Two more horse were placed DIVIN BERE and DEBUCHET, so overall I was pleased.

On to day three and hopefully a few more good runs and successes.

JLT Novices Chase

This is cracking little race to get us going on day three and there are some good horses going at each other here. TOP NOTCH is the first of these, he has got better as the season has progressed culminating in a very good run in Scilly Isles. He has to have a good chance. YORKHILl has always been ‘potentially’ a smart horse but he really hasn’t beaten much in my opinion this year and reread my previous thoughts about the yard and 5/4 is stupid price. He may ,take a mug of me though. DISKO will have his followers and rightly so, he is another that has got progressively better. I’m opting for POLITOLOGUE though. The Nicholls yard is also a bit hit and miss but this one has always been held in high regard. He again, like the others has got better and better and he just looks a natural chaser and is so smooth and that could be the determining factor here. Get your money on!!!

SELECTION : POLITOLOGUE 13-2 Paddy Power

Pertemps Network Final

Oh this race brings back my fond HOLYWELL memories and hopefully I’ll have another big priced winner. So, straight to it, for me GAYEBURY wins this. He’s top weight and top weight for a reason, he’s potentially very good and top weights do well in this. He was put in his place by WILLOUGHBY COURT at Warwick and that’s where they both went into my notebook. One did the business yesterday and that has seriously franked the form. GAYEBURY went on form his defeat and won the series qualifier at Chepstow very well beating JURY DUTY. He has been raised a massive 15lbs for that showing how good a performance it was and interestingly that is the same mark WILLOUGHBY COURT won off yesterday. He has yet to run on good ground but his sire Overbury was a winner and runner on good and faster ground and it may bring our further improvement in him. TOBEFAIR cannot be discounted as he is so strong and such a battler and JURY DUTY has a 13lb pull on GAYEBURY today and that has to be taken into consideration too but I don’t think he’ll like the ground. A cracking race where MR MIX and  FOR GOOD MEASURE also have strong chances. If you can solve this, you’re a good one – I hope I have!!

SELECTION : GAYEBURY 22-1 Paddy Power

FOR GOOD MEASURE 17-2 Bet365

Ryanair Chase

This is a good race and contains horses who are top class but don’t have enough petrol in the reserves to go in the Gold cup. So for me, it’s always a great spectacle. UN DE SCEAUX has performed very well again this year and he has jumped so much better and he has to have a massive chance. The concern as well as the stable is the ground though, will it be soft enough? He is for me the class horse in the race though! JOSES HILL won the Peterborough and should give everyone a good run for their money but for me he lacks the class for this. EMPIRE OF DIRT could give the owner a winner in his own race. He won well at the festival last year and won the Troytown with ease. He has class and stays, shortlist! What a story it would be for UXIZANDRE rot win after coming back so well after injury and he jumped straight back into everyone’s lists after his comeback run behind UDS last time. A cracking race – sit back and enjoy.

SELECTION : UN DE SCEAUX 11-4 William Hill

Stayers Hurdle

I love this race as it reminds me of INGLIS DREVER, one of my all time favs. Think about the winners of this race recently, the DREVER, BIG BUCKS, THISTLECRACK and I think we will see the next staying star born. UKNOWWHATIMEANHARRY is head and shoulders above these and he won the Cleeve at a canter and I can’t see him getting beat here. I think her’ll go off even money or shorter tomorrow. Get the 6-4 quick!!

SELECTION : UKNOWWHATIMEANHARRY 6-4 BOYLESPORTS

Brown Advisory and Merriebelle Stable Plate

Another of my favourite competitive handicaps to try and find the winner of!! This is a race where a big priced horse usually wins and if you can find the winner you’ve done a bloody good job; but I like a challenge, so here goes!DIAMOND KING is a worthy favourite but Im not sure he’ll win. He has good form and we saw what he can do last year and little old VILLAGE VIC lets him have a lighter weight to carry. BOUVREIL goes on the shortlist after a great couple of runs. THOMAS CRAPPER creeps in after his success last week and has some solid form. VILLAGE VIC has had another awesome season and he thrives in races like this. He is such a tough cookie and he may appreciate the better ground, if they give him a soft lead then they could be in a lot of trouble. KATACHENKO looked better for stepping up last time in trip and was given a confidence booster and he is on a nice mark and should like the ground. I have to have an each way wager on him at that price.

SELECTIONS : VILLAGE VIC 16-1 Paddy Power

KATACHENKO each way 40-1 Paddy Power

Trull House Stud Mares Hurdle

Not a race I’m spent a lot off time or that I’m a big fan of. The Mullins yard seem to have a good one it LETS DANCE to carry on from last year. Yet AIRLIE BEACH is potentially very good too and could surprise the yard and others and keep her unbeaten run up. To take the Mullins team on then you have to opt for LA BAGUE AU ROI who has some good form ion the bag and has been considered a strong contender for this for a while; the ground will help her chances considerably. She beat DUSKY LEGEND well last time and she has to have the best chance for me here.

SELECTION : LA BAGUE AU ROI 10-1 Paddy Power

Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Chase

This is a tough one to crack and it’s more difficult with the amateurs on them, but you need an experienced amateur that is for sure. The Pipe’s are masters at this and anything of theres needs noting. PREMIER BOND has Sam on board and and has performed nicely in some Novice chases this year. DOCTOR HARPER is off the same mark as running in this last year and has a big race like this in him, his jumping just doesn’t seem to be slick enough for me. SQUOQaaaawhatever you say has been lined up for this and has last year’s winnig jockey on board. Im opting for an old favourite of mine who will absolutely love the ground. If he can get into sa good rhythm of jumping he could be thereabouts at the end. That is LAMB OR COD. Put a line through his last run on soft ground and he has the ability to take this last race.

SELECTION : LAMB OR COD 33-1 Bet365

Selections:

£5 win POLITOLOGUE 1:30 13-2 Paddy Power

£5 each way GAYEBURY 2:10 22-1 Paddy Power

£5 each way VILLAGE VIC 16-1 Paddy Power

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Hennessy Gold Cup

Photo by Mark Cranham (racing post.com/photos)
 
One winner on the blog last week and it is the last time we'll see ROCK ON RUBY on a racecourse. Sad news to hear about him being retired but if it prolongs his life then it's worth it. What a fabulous horse he is and how much he has given to the cause. It was great to see him back to his best for one last time! Had retirement fella! On to Newbury today and the key early Gold Cup pointer race! I'm looking forward to watching what should be a awesome race!
 
Here are my selections for today :
 
FINGAL BAY 1500 NEWBURY (nap)
He broke a blood vessel in this last year and returns on a mark that is 9lbs lower than last year. He has always been a very smart horse, especially over hurdles. He has lowered the colours of SIMONSIG, DYNASTE and SOUTHFIELD THEATRE. He ran a creditable race behind SMAD PLACE at Kempton last time and is now 8lbs better off with that rival today. Over this extended distance that is alot and he has always enjoyed staying races. I'm sure they will have sorted his jumping out and he is now a 9 year old amd this may be his year as the top chasing horse. You need class to win this race and he has bags of it! SAPHIR DU RHEU is a lovely horse and his trainer thinks lots of him, but to win this with 11st 12lbs and as a six year old? Too much I reckon! BOBS WORTH showed a bit of form last time but I think the old flame for this type of race doesnt burn brightly enough. NED STARK is another that catches my eye.
 
MA FILLUELE 1350 NEWBURY (nb)
This one's price is shortening all the time! She didn't really run a race last time at Wetherby and she may now be better over the bigger obstacles. However, I'm intrigued that they persevere over hurdles and this slightly longer trip will help too. She's a classy mare and her mark has been dropped by a crazy 10lbs because of her Wetherby run. That's a full 23lbs lower than her chase mark where she has been second to the likes of HOLYWELL, BALDER SUCCESS and UXIZANDRE. Interestingly this is a return to a previous winning hurdles mark of OR134 when she beat SWINCOMBE FLAME over this trip at Warwick.
 
BIG CASINO 1315 NEWBURY (treble)
I really fancied this guy when he ran first time out at Cheltenham. He ran well for along way that day and just didn't stay the trip at that pace. He's been dropped 2lbs by the handicapper and also drops in class 2, as well as a three furlong shorter trip. That's a lot of boxes ticked for me, he also has an apprentice taking 5lbs off to give him a great racing weight. If they go positively with him again they not peg him back.
 
KATACHENKO 1355 DONCASTER
Defeated MON SUCCESSEUR at Wetherby on his seasonal debut in a class 3 chase just short of two miles. He steps back up in trip today but he has won at this distance before and he's only been raised one pound by the handicapper for his last win. MON SUCCESSEUR was only just pipped yesterday to boost the form a little and this horse is worth watching!
 
My Dad's selections are :
 
 
PLACINGS
FATHER 1-2 SON
PROFIT/LOSS
Father – £29.39
Son -£8.21
I also like these elsewhere – STAGE ONE 1250 DONCASTER, HARVEY HOPE 1430 DONCASTER and CALIVIGNY 1300 NEWCASTLE